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研究论文

摘要：本文从中国河流水文的具体情况出发,研究了水质变化的机制。在充分取得水质系统信息的条件下。进行了模型的选择、参数识别和分段动态水质模型的建立。考虑了天然河道中随机因素对水质的影响,引进模型随机误差来体现随机因素对BOD-DO浓度的影响,然后利用自适应技术自动校正河流状态估计和预报系统,应用卡尔曼滤波技术建立伊洛河水质状态估计和预报系统。这是从天然河道特点出发,引进数学计算技术改进和提高水质模型精度的尝试,结果是很令人满意的。

Abstract：The water quality model and its prediction system presented in this paper are a part of the study on water quality assessment and management planning of Yiluo River. Based upon specific hydrology of streams in China, mechanism variation in water quality and information of water quality system collected over 1981-1983 period, model selection, parameter identification and dynamic models of water quality were done within different reaches of Yiluo River. Taking into account the effects of stochastic factor in natural streams on water quality here, random error of models was introduced to show effects of stochastic factors on BOD-DO concentrations, and then self-adaptive technique was used to rectify automatically stream state estimation and its prediction system, and Kalman filter technique was adopted to establish water quality state estimation and its prediction system. The result is found satisfactory and successful. This was an attempt to recommend mathematical calculating technique in order to improve and enhance precision of water quality models. Research on application of water quality models will certainly be benefited from the system.