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• 基金项目：

• 林昌善
• 北京大学生物系

• 吴聿明
• 北京大学生物系

• 摘要：本文介绍了对以“10％抽样资料”为主的各种人口数据的分析结果,并对到本世纪末的中国人口数进行了五种假设,提出了解决人口问题的对策.

• Abstract：This paper shows the results of our analysis of various population data, mainly from the "10% Sampling Tabulation". The analysis covers the following six aspects with a brief discussion on the current issues. (1) The female fertility status. (2) The average age specific (1-49 years old) of female mortality during the year 1983-2000, including both the urban and the rural population, the life span and the age specific death of the whole population. (3) The accumulative birth rate of minority people from 1983-2000 and estimation of population rate of Taiwan, Hongkong and Macao areas. (4) The estimation of birth rate of children bearing females in the year 2000. (5) The estimation of birth rate by means of a mathematical method. (6) The estimation of population growth rate during the next hundred years by using Leslie matrix.Based on the five different assumptions the total population of China including Taiwan, Hongkong and Macao, may have one of the following possible numbers:A. 113,236 (10 thousands)B. 122,142 (10 thousands)C. 126,491 (10 thousands)D. 130,233 (10 thousands)E. 138,846(10 thousands)It shows that estimation (E) presents a serious problem that draws our attention and needs to take immediate effective action. Both (A) and (D) are not possible while both (C) and (B) are the most probable. The population estimation by using Leslie matrix is also given in this paper.

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