• 关键词：水质  模拟  污染控制  风险率

• 基金项目：

• 黄平
• 中山大学地理系，广州 510275

• 陈铣成
• 华南环境科学研究所

• 摘要：根据Liouville定理,推导了一个随机动态水质模型,并提出了相应的数值求解方法,该模型用于感潮河段的水质模拟及控制,获得污染物浓度变化的主要趋势、波动范围、浓度超标风险率及其与超标时间长的关系等,较好地揭示了污染物浓度的不确定性变化对水污染控制的影响.

• Abstract：A stochastic dynamic water quality model was deduced by using Liouville theorem, and its numerical algorithm was proposed. The model can be used in simulation and control of water quality in tide river segment. A great deal of information, such as the main trend and range of variation for a pollutant's concentration, the risk which a pollutant's concentration exceeds its limit value, and the relation between the time and possibility of exceeding the concentration limit value, can be obtained through solving this model. It was showed that the model was able to show the effects of uncertain change in the concentration on the water pollution control program when it was used in Jiangmen River.

• Key words：Stochastic  water quality model  pollution control

• 
  摘要点击次数： 1747 全文下载次数： 2477