• 关键词：全球变暖  死亡率  环境医学

• 基金项目：

• 谭冠日
• 中山大学大气科学系, 广州 510275

• 摘要：研究表明,最高气温达到34℃以上的”热日“死亡数显着增加,”热日多出死亡数“占夏季总死亡数的百分率,上海为4.2%,广州为3.8%.广州人对热压力的适应性比上海人强。如果上海和广州未来温升不到1℃,冬夏死亡效变化不大；如温升几度,夏季死亡数上升,超过冬季死亡数的下降,全年死亡率增高。

• Abstract：This paper presents the potential impacts of global warming on human mortality in Shanghai and Guangzhou,basing on the statistical analysis of human mortality in summer and winter.In general,deaths from most causes in winter are more than those in summer. Deaths from cancer in both seasons are not much different. Daily mortality obviously rises on “hot day” with maximum temperature higher than 34℃,the “heat-related mortality”accounts for 4.2 percent of the total mortality in summer in Shanghai and 3.4 percent in Guangzhou. As tem-perature increases,deaths caused by accidents,respiratory diseases and mi-nor or rarely-occurred diseases increase very rapidly.People in Guangzhou are more easy to acclimatize to the hot weather than those in Shanghai. Daily mortality in winter increases slowly with decreasing in minimum temperature. If warming in doubled CO₂ conditions is less than one degree, mortality in both summer and winter will change slightly.But if climate warms up to several degrees,summer mortality will increase dramatically,then total mor-tality rate will go up.

• Key words：global warming  mortality  environmental medical science

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