• 关键词：流域  环境系统规划  不确定性模糊多目标规划  系统动力学模型  洱海

• 基金项目：UNEP资助

• 郭怀成
• 北京大学环境科学中心,北京 100871

• 徐云麟
• 北京大学环境科学中心,北京 100871

• 邹锐
• 北京大学环境科学中心,北京 100871

• G.H.Huang
• Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Canada S4S 0A2

• 刘磊
• 北京大学环境科学中心,北京 100871

• 摘要：开发了一套新的流域环境系统规划方法。该方法将不确定性模糊多目标规划模型(IFMOP)与系统动力学模型(SD)有机地集成在一起,构成一个完整的体系。IFMOP充分考虑到了流域环境规划所面临的信息不完备问题,将不确定性信息直接引入优化过程,从而得到以区间数表示的不确定性优化解;在模型优化解的解译过程中,将各个变量在区间内进行适当组合就能生成各种针对实际情况的规划方案;IFMOP的规划结果可以输入到SD模型中进行后模型分析,从而对规划方案实施后的环境、经济后果进行合理预测,并为决策者论证、调整方案提供科学依据。通过两个模型的有机结合,在云南洱海流域的环境规划研究中有效地解决了如何生成规划方案以及如何评估各个方案的环境经济后果等问题。

• Abstract：This study developed a new environmental system planning method for watershed. The method integrated the IFMOP(Inexact Fuzzy Multi-objective Programming) model and SD(System Dynamics) model into a holistic system.It possesses several important characteristics as follows: by giving the incomplete information condition fully consideration, the IFMOP can communicate the uncertain information into the process of model formulation and solution, so that some inexact solutions can be achieved; varied practicable planning schemes can be generated by intepreting the solutions within their solution intervals; the environmental and economic consequence can be successfully predicted by inputting the solutions of IFMOP into the SD model, this will be benefitable to the decision makers because the result of the SD model can provide them with many useful information for justifing and modifying the programme. So, by integrating the two models, the newly proposed method can effectively help the decision makers generating planning schemes and evaluating the environmental and economic consequences of each programme. The method has been successfully applied in the environmental planning for the Lake Erhai Basin, Yunnan Province.

• Key words：Watershed  Environmental system planning  Inexact fuzzy multi-objective programming  System dynamics model  Erhai Lake

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