• 关键词：跨边界  水冲突  模型  控制断面  区域

• 基金项目：国家重点科技攻关项目(969204004);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G1999043605)

• 杨志峰
• 北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

• 曾勇
• 北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

• 摘要：针对水量短缺和水质污染引起的跨边界区域水资源冲突, 运用大系统分解协调原理和博奕理论构建了跨边界区域水资源冲突与协调模型体系.该模型体系通过在行政边界出境处设置控制断面, 按生活、生产、生态用水分类预测了未来断面控制区域的用水量和水污染物排放量, 在此基础上建立了断面非合作与合作模型对冲突中的竞争和合作行为进行模拟, 并选用纳什法协调冲突.模型确保了河道的最小生态用水需求, 并通过关联预估法协调模型中的水量子系统和水质子系统, 模型既可对断面水量进行优化调度, 又可对断面水污染物排放进行总量控制.

• Abstract：Water conflict between transboundary regions were arose by water scarcity and pollution. With control section setting in district boundary, transboundary water conflict and coordination models were developed by using a decomposition-coordination approach and game theory. After forecasting water demand and pollutant discharge in section control region by classifying life water demand, production water demand and ecological water demand, non-cooperative and cooperative models were established to simulate the competition and cooperation actions in conflict. Then, Nash Solution was selected to coordinate the conflict. Finally, the minimum river flow is ensured in the models, which can achieve simultaneously water use optimizing and total pollutant discharge controlling by using interaction prediction method. Thus, a thought and a reference way for the water conflict resolution in the transboundary semi-arid regions of north china is provided by these models.

• Key words：transboundary  water conflict  model  control section  region

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