研究论文
翟青,刘星,杨玉峰.CDM项目温室气体减排成本的不确定性分析[J].环境科学学报,2004,24(4):649-654
CDM项目温室气体减排成本的不确定性分析
- Uncertainty analysis on greenhouse gases reduction cost in CDM project
- 基金项目：
- 作者
- 单位
- 翟青
- 北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京 100084
- 刘星
- 东北大学秦皇岛分校,秦皇岛 066000
- 杨玉峰
- 国家发展改革委员会能源研究所,北京 100038
- 摘要：以清洁发展机制(CDM)为背景,针对计算温室气体排放量和减排成本中存在的不确定性进行了MonteCarlo模拟研究,分析了不确定性变量是如何影响决策变量的.结论是:各类碳排放因子、碳排放量、碳减排成本、减排收益是相互关联而存在连锁影响的,其中的发电碳排放因子和煤炭开采释放的甲烷排放系数是主要的.这为进一步计算或估计存在的风险,从而为参与CDM谈判决策提供重要的决策参考.
- Abstract：Based on clean development mechanism(CDM), using Monte Carlo method, this paper simulated uncertainties existed in calculating GHGs(Greenhouse Gases) emissions and GHGs reduction costs and analyzed how the uncertainty coefficients influence the decision variables. The basic conclusions are: different emission factors, carbon emissions, carbon emission mitigation cost, and carbon mitigation benefits are highly inter related. In all factors, the emission factors from power generation and CH4 emission factors from coal mining are the main factors. This can give great contributions and references for the estimation of risks and CDM negotiations.
- Key words：clean development mechanism(CDM) carbon emission reductions carbon emission reduction cost uncertainty analysis Monte Carlo simulation
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