• 关键词：海岸带  污染负荷预测  点源污染  非点源污染

• 基金项目：国家高技术研究发展计划(2002AAA648010)

• 王红莉
• 天津大学环境科学与工程学院, 天津 300072

• 姜国强
• 天津大学机械工程学院, 天津 300072

• 陶建华
• 天津大学机械工程学院, 天津 300072

• 摘要：针对海岸带及其近岸海域污染的特点,建立旨在为污染负荷总量的控制与削减以及在不同部门的重新分配提供技术手段和科学依据的海岸带水污染负荷预测模型.该模型涵盖了海岸带区域的主要污水排放部门,综合采用统计回归、灰色预测等方法,解决了由于数据缺乏或相互关系不明确而带来的环境系统的不确定性问题,并依据天津市污染负荷历年统计数据对模型加以验证.通过对天津市近岸海域近10年氮、磷、石油类和耗氧有机物排放量估算结果可以看出,万元产值工业废水排放量逐年下降,耗氧有机物排放量逐年缓慢增长.在污水排放总量中,有23的耗氧有机物和75%以上的氮来自于生活污水,因此天津市应重点控制生活污水排放.

• Abstract：Aimed at characters of pollutant from coastal zone and offshore area, a coastal zone pollution load forecasting model was developed by using statistical method, gray prediction method and so on. The main goal of developing the model was to supply the technical means and scientific references for controlling, reducing and redistributing total amount of pollution load. The model included the main waste water discharging departments and solved the uncertainty problem of environment system caused by data scarcity and relation ambiguity. The estimation results had been checked up by the pollution load statistic data of near ten years in Tianjin. It could be seen from the pollution load estimation results of nitrogen, phosphorus, oil and oxygen consumption organic, that industrial wastewater discharge volume per ten thousand production values decreased year after year, and oxygen consumption organic discharge volume increased slowly. In the total discharge amount of waste water, two thirds of oxygen consumption organic and over 75% of nitrogen came from domestic sewage. Domestic sewage discharge control should be emphasized consequently.

• Key words：coastal zone  pollution load forecasting model  point source  non-point source

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