环境化学与生态毒理
王宣同,唐孝炎,胡建信.利用TaPL3模型计算p,p'-DDTDDT在天津地区的长距离传输潜力[J].环境科学学报,2005,25(4):491-496
利用TaPL3模型计算p,p'-DDTDDT在天津地区的长距离传输潜力
- Calculation of long-range transport potential of p,p'-DDTDDT in Tianjin using TaPL3 model
- 基金项目：UNDP项目(No.CPR01R51ACC31)
- 作者
- 单位
- 王宣同
- 北京大学环境学院, 北京 100871
- 唐孝炎
- 北京大学环境学院, 北京 100871
- 胡建信
- 北京大学环境学院, 北京 100871
- 摘要：利用TaPL3(Version 3.00模型计算了天津地区p,p'-DDT通过大气和水体的长距离传输潜力(LRTP).通过灵敏度分析,确定了模型的关键参数.利用蒙特卡罗方法对模型结果进行了不确定性分析.结果表明,天津地区p,p'-DDT通过大气的LRTP为473～762km,均值为579km;通过水体的LRTP为940～10958km,均值为2254km.通过大气的LRTP的结果分布比通过水体的LRTP更集中.与国外同类结果比较,通过大气的LRTP略低,而通过水体的LRTP则明显偏低.
- Abstract：The long-range transport potential(LRTP) of p,p'-DDTDDTthrough air and water in Tianjin is calculated with model TaPL3(Version3.00). The key parameters of the model is identified by sensitivity analysis. The uncertainty of the output is analyzed by Monte Carlo method. According to the output of the model, the LRTPof p,p'-DDTDDT through air in Tianjin is 473～762km, and the mean value is 579km. The LRTPthrough water is 940～10958km, and the mean value is 2254km. The output of LRTPthrough air is more centralized than that of LRTPthrough water. Compared to the similar foreign research, the LRTPthrough air is a little lower, but the LRTPthrough water is obviously lower.
- Key words：p,p'-DDT persistent organic pollutants (POPs) long-range transport potential (LRTP) uncertainty analysis
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