• 关键词：城市生态系统  耗散结构  熵变  发展度  协调度  宁波

• 基金项目：国家重点基础发展规划项目(973)(No.2005CB724204);高等院校优秀青年教师教学科研奖励计划(2002)

• 张妍
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 环境模拟与污染控制国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

• 杨志峰
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 环境模拟与污染控制国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

• 何孟常
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 环境模拟与污染控制国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

• 胡廷兰
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 环境模拟与污染控制国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

• 摘要：基于耗散结构理论和城市复合生态系统理论,构建了城市生态系统演化分析的指标体系,建立了评估城市生态系统演化的量化模型.采用基于信息熵的分析方法,可获得城市生态系统演化评估的年份信息熵和指标信息熵:采用年份信息熵计算城市系统的支持型输入熵、压力型输出压力熵、氧化型代谢熵和还原型代谢熵,分析系统的有序以及复杂性;采用指标信息熵可确定各个指标的权重,再结合各个指标的归一化值,得到综合评估得分值,作为评估城市可持续发展水平的指数值,确定系统的发展度和协调度.以宁波市为例,应用量化模型纵向评价了1996—2003年城市可持续发展进程.评价结果表明:宁波城市生态系统的健康、有序水平不断提高,协调能力不断增强,系统活力有待改善.1996—2003年,宁波城市生态系统的熵流、熵产生、总熵均呈现出下降趋势,城市发展目标逐渐明确、有序度不断增强;宁波城市生态系统熵流的发展度和协调度不断提高,表现为由较强的社会经济压力向较强的自然生态支持力转变;宁波城市生态系统熵产生的发展度呈先增后减的趋势,表明城市系统代谢功能不稳定,其协调度呈现出振荡趋势,经历了氧化型代谢——还原型代谢——氧化型代谢的转变.

• Abstract：Based on dissipative structure theory and urban nature-economy-society complex ecosystem theory, the indicator system of evaluating urban developing direction, and the appraisable model based on information entropy, which can measure various flows in Urban Ecosystem(UE), were set up. Further, Year-based and Indicator-based information entropies were obtained in UE. Four types of information entropy, including Backup inflow Entropy, Imposed output Entropy, Destructive metabolism Entropy, and Regenerative metabolism Entropy, were calculated by Year-based information entropy to analyze the order and complexity of UE. The weights of indicators evaluating UEwere calculated, furthermore the index scores of urban ecosystem were calculated by combing with standardization values of indicators. Index values of sustainable development could be applied to identify the development level and degree of harmony of UE. Employing the measure method, the progress of Ningbo's sustainable development from 1996 to 2003 was characterized. The results indicated that the health level of Ningbo UCincreased, and its livability simultaneously was continually improved. The entropy flow, entropy production, and total entropy decreased with the losing of time, leading to an order-producing and target-clearing city. The degrees of development and harmony of systematic entropy flow increased from 1996 to 2003, and it underwent a complicated transform from socio-economic pressure into ecological carrying capacity. The degree of development of systematic entropy production was characterized by increasing first and then decreasing from 1996 to 2003, leading to the instability of metabolism function. Its degree of harmony changed irregularly from 1996 to 2003, and it underwent a complicated course from destructive metabolism to regenerative metabolism, then destructive metabolism again.

• Key words：urban ecosystem  dissipative structure  entropy change  degree of development  degree of Harmony  Ningbo

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