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吴义锋,薛联青,吕锡武.基于未确知数学理论的水质风险评价模式[J].环境科学学报,2006,26(6):1047-1052
基于未确知数学理论的水质风险评价模式
- Assessment model of water quality risk based on unascertained mathematics theory
- 基金项目：河海大学水文水资源及水利工程科学国家重点实验室对外开放科技创新基金项目(No.2003400519);中国高技术研究发展计划(863)项目(No.2002AA601011-03)
- 作者
- 单位
- 吴义锋
- 东南大学环境工程系, 南京 210096
- 薛联青
- 河海大学水文水资源及水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 南京 210098
- 吕锡武
- 东南大学环境工程系, 南京 210096
- 摘要：基于水质风险评价系统具有未确知性的特点,运用未确知数学理论,在确定性水质风险评价模式的基础上,建立了未确知性水质风险评价模式.该模型对水质风险评价的结果不仅得到了水质风险度及其相应的可信度值,同时也确定了水质风险度超过规定限值时的超标可信度.将模式应用于某市饮用水地下水源中,对污染物6价铬进行水质风险评价,结果表明,在该市水源中污染物6价铬通过饮水途径所致风险度介于3.90×10-5～4.09×10-5a-1范围内的可能性最大,且其相应的可信度为24.94%;此水质风险度已超过瑞典环保局、荷兰建设和环境部推荐的健康危害风险度最大可接受限值1.0×10-6a-1,相对于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的最大可接受限值5.0×10-5a-1,该市水源水质由污染物6价铬所致的风险度在一定程度上超标,超标可信度为35.31%.
- Abstract：Based on the uncertainty characteristics of risk assessment on water quality and unascertained mathematics theory, a new unascertained water quality risk assessment model is preferred in this paper. The risk degree, its relative reliability degree and reliability degree with risk value beyond the maximum accepted level can be obtained through the model. When the Cr(Ⅵ) factor is used for water quality risk assessment in a regional groundwater fountain, the calculated results indicated the maximum risk possibility of water quality due to Cr(Ⅵ) influence via drinking water is within 3.90 ×10-5～4.09×10-5a-1, meanwhile the corresponding faith degree of risk possibility is～24.94%. The water quality risk degree of Cr(Ⅵ) exceeds the maximum accepted level 1.0×10-6a-1 recommended by Sweden and Holand Environmental Protection Agency. And compared with the maximum accepted level with 5.0×10-5a-1 recommended by the international commission on radiological protection (ICRP), the relative reliability on water quality caused by Cr(Ⅵ) is 35.31%.
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