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Research on the forecast of meteorological condition and pollutant diffusion on urban neighborhood scale

基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目(No.40505002);北京市自然科学基金项目(No.8051002);北京市科技新星计划(No.2005A03);国家科技攻关计划(No.2004BA607B0(3);2002BA904B05)

摘要：从城市小区气象条件与污染扩散精细预报的科研需求和城市大气环境应急响应的应用需求出发,利用新一代全球/区域同化预报系统、城市小区尺度气象和污染扩散模式以及城市尺度污染扩散模式,对城市小区气象条件与污染扩散进行了精细预报试验,并进一步研究了城市小区尺度气象和污染扩散的精细模拟对城市尺度污染扩散模拟的影响.初步建立了城市小区气象条件与污染扩散精细预报方法,即:气象部分由全球到小区逐级单向嵌套、污染部分由小区到城市逐级单向嵌套的方法.预报试验结果表明,这种方法是合理可行的.小区尺度精细模拟对城市尺度污染扩散模拟的影响较大,但其模拟效果还有待利用观测资料进一步验证.

Abstract：In order to meet the request of scientific research on the meteorological condition and pollutant diffusion forecast on urban neighborhood scale and the application of emergency response to urban atmospheric environment, the precise forecast experiments of the meteorological condition and pollutant diffusion on urban neighborhood scale have been carried out by using the GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) on regional scale, meteorological and pollutant diffusion model on urban neighborhood scale, and pollutant diffusion model on urban scale. Furthermore, the effect of meteorology and pollutant diffusion modeling of urban neighborhood scale on the pollutant diffusion modeling of urban scale was investigated. The method of precise forecast of the meteorological condition and pollutant diffusion on urban neighborhood scale has been established, i.e. gradual one-way nesting from global to neighborhood scale in meteorological modeling and from neighborhood to urban scale in diffusion modeling. The experiments show that this method was reasonable and feasible. The effect of precise modeling of urban neighborhood scale on the pollutant diffusion modeling of urban scale is significant. However, the results of nesting simulation are needed to be further validated by the observational data.

Key words：urban neighborhood scale meteorological condition atmospheric environment precise forecast