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邹志红,王学良.BP模型在河流水质预测中的误差分析[J].环境科学学报,2007,27(6):1038-1042
BP模型在河流水质预测中的误差分析
- The errors analysis for river water quality prediction based-on BP-modeling
- 基金项目：国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.50378008)
- 作者
- 单位
- 邹志红
- 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083
- 王学良
- 北京航空航天大学经济管理学院, 北京 100083
- 摘要：为验证BP模型在河流水质预测中的有效性,利用仿真技术模拟一条河流污染物的变化趋势,并得到大量的河流水质参数数据.用上游已知河段的水质数据预测该河流下游10个检测断面的水质状况.预测过程分2种情况进行:长距离预测(一次连续预测下游10个河段)和短距离预测(每次连续预测下游2个河段),并以MSE函数生成均方误差作为对2种预测方法性能的检验.结果显示,长距离预测的性能低于短距离预测,2种方法对溶解氧预测的均方误差为0.432和0.035,对生化需氧量预测的均方误差分别为0.243、0.055.
- Abstract：The aim of this study is to describe Error Back Propagation approach that can be used to forecast the water quality. In order to check the validity of the approach, a hypothetical field data as a case study were produced by water quality simulation of a river. ANNwas trained by using the upriver data in a river to predict the water quality of lower reaches of the river, which can be predicted by two methods namely long- distance prediction and short-distance prediction. Trying to analyze the validity of two methods using the MSEfunction in MATLAB 7 indicated the predicted results from short-distance approach were more accurate than that of long-distance prediction. The mean square errors of Dissolved Oxygen were 0.432 for long-distance prediction and 0.035 for short-distance prediction while the mean square errors of Biochemical Oxygen Demand were 0.243 and 0.055.
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