• 关键词：经济增长  环境质量  VAR模型

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金(No.40101005)

• 刘坤
• 鲁东大学地理与资源管理学院, 烟台 264025

• 刘贤赵
• 鲁东大学地理与资源管理学院, 烟台 264025

• 常文静
• 北京大学环境学院, 北京 100871

• 摘要：利用烟台市1986～2003年间的3类环境污染指标和人均GDP数据,基于VAR计量技术,通过变量平稳性和协整检验,格兰杰因果检验,脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解分析,对经济增长与环境污染在时序维度的关系及其动态性进行了实证研究.结果显示:①人均GDP变化是导致污染物排放量变化的格兰杰原因,但污染物排放并不必然导致人均GDP变化,这与研究期间烟台市处于工业化中期阶段的事实吻合;②在烟台市的经济-环境系统内,倒U曲线不是一般规律,选取不同的污染指标呈现出经济-环境间关系的不同表现形式;③经济增长对环境污染的冲击影

• Abstract：Based on the unrestricted VARmethod,the dynamic interactions between economic growth and environmental pollution was investigated through the variable stationary characterization and cointegration test,granger causality test,impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis according to the time series data of three kinds of pollution indices in Yantai city from 1986 to 2003. The results were as follows:①The GDPper capita granger caused pollution emissions,while it was not true in versa. This was consistent with the fact that Yantai was at a middle industrialization stage during the study period. ②The "Inverted U" curve reflecting the economy-environment relationship between indices of environmental quality and levels of GDPper capita was not a general rule, and the differences of selected pollution indices could present different forms in the economy-environment system. ③The impact of economic growth on environmental quality was short-time and non-asymptotic,whereas the one of the environmental disciplinarian quality on economic growth was long-time and asymptotic. ④The analysis of variance decomposition indicated that the economic growth was the main variable to explain the forecasting mean square error of the environmental quality indices and it was not true in versa. Finally,it was necessary to strengthen the government's supervision on environment, establish an effective property right-protection market-bargaining system, and pay more attention to environment protection and economic sustainable development.

• Key words：economic growth  environmental pollution  VAR model

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