• 关键词：物质流分析(MFA)  物质输入  物质输出  IPAT  相对解耦  广东省

• 基金项目：广东省自然科学基金项目(No.04300916);广东省科技厅资助项目(No.2005B31101005)

• 张音波
• 1. 中山大学环境科学与工程学院, 广州 510275; 2. 环境保护部华南环境科学研究所, 广州 510655

• 陈新庚
• 中山大学环境科学与工程学院, 广州 510275

• 彭晓春
• 环境保护部华南环境科学研究所, 广州 510655

• 桑燕鸿
• 环境保护部华南环境科学研究所, 广州 510655

• 摘要：运用物质流分析(MFA)方法,对广东省经济系统在1990～2005年间的物质输入与输出进行系统地分析,探讨了广东省经济发展与环境压力的关系.研究结果表明:①在不考虑水的情况下,物质输入与输出量均在不断增加(年均分别为4.50%和3.87%),但均小于GDP的增长速度(14.62%),二者成正比,物质消耗强度和物质输出强度也在逐渐上升,说明区域社会经济的发展带动了人们物质消费的增长,从而导致输出的增加;②水输入输出量以及废水排放强度均在不断增加,尤其是生活污水排放量及排放强度的增长速度较快,加重了对区域水环境的压力;③单位GDP的物质输入与输出均在不断降低,表明区域资源综合利用效率和废弃物输出效率得到明显提高;④物质输入输出与GDP回归分析表明,区域物质输入与GDP、区域物质输出与GDP呈良好的线性关系;⑤IPAT模型分析表明,区域过程排放(RPO)受到技术水平提高的限制,但由于国民福利与人口增长的压力,使得RPO仍以年均2.67%的速度增长,但远小于GDP的增长速度,表明区域经济和环境处在相对解耦状态,广东省正逐步走向区域环境与经济的协调发展.

• Abstract：Resource consumption and pollution are highly correlated with the economic development in Guangdong Province.Dynamic analysis was carriedout from the point of viewof material weight and material flowanalysis(MFA) on the current situation and developmental trends between the economy andthe resources of Guangdong Province from1990 to 2005.It can be concluded that,① excluding water,material inputs and outputs rose persistently atmean annual rates of4.50% and 3.87%,respectively,but both were lower than the rate of GDP growth(14.62%).The material inputs are in a directratio with the material outputs.The development of the regional economy accelerates the growth of the total material inputs and outputs per capita.② Thetotal water input and output,and the total water output per capita are rising persistently.In particular,the quantity and intensity of domestic wastewateris growing rapidly,which aggravates regional environmental pressures.③ Both the material inputs and outputs per unit GDPare rising persistently,namely resource utilization efficiency and pollutant releasing efficiency in Guangdong Province have been accelerated.④ The material inputs and outputsare linearly correlated with GDP.⑤ Based on analysis of the relationship between the environment and the economy with the IPAT model,regionalprocessed outputs(RPO) are restricted by technology,but they are still rising slowly at a mean annual rate of2.67%,due to the pressures of populationgrowth and affluence.The economic growth is accompanied by a slower growth of environmental impact.It is quite clear that a relative decoupling hasoccurred between the environment and the economy in Guangdong Province.The study is helpful for Guangdong Province to prepare a strategic method forcoordinated development between the environment and the economy.

• Key words：material flow analysis(MFA)  material inputs  material outputs  IPAT  relative decoupling  Guangdong Province

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