• 关键词：规划环评  产业结构  土地利用  蒙特卡罗采样  HSY算法

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金(No.40701057/D0110);国家“十一五”科技攻关支撑项目计划(No.2006BAJ02A01-02)

• 刘毅
• 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084

• 陈吉宁
• 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084

• 何炜琪
• 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084

• 摘要：开发不同类型规划的环境影响评价技术和方法是当前国内的热点研究领域之一.围绕城市总体规划特点,在分析识别规划经济增长和用地布局方案中存在的多种不确定性的基础上,以产业和用地为基本评估单元,综合运用蒙特卡罗随机采样技术和HSY算法,并将其与地理信息系统进行整合,建立了基于结构与空间不确定性分析的城市规划环评方法和系统评估模型.

• Abstract：Development of efficient and effective methods for implementing plan environmental assessment(PEA)is one of the frontier research domains in China.This article develops an integrated methodology aiming to appropriately depict and evaluate the underlying uncertainties of economic growth designs and land use in urban master plans as well as their related environmental impacts.Combining Monte Carlo sampling technique and the HSYalgorithm,the method introduces an uncertainty analysis approach into PEA.A GIS-based model is subsequently constructed,which enables all tentative stochastic samples regarding potential industrial development and land use patterns and their induced environmental impacts to be examined in a systematic way.

• Key words：plan environmental assessment(PEA)  industrial structure  land use  Monte Carlo sampling  HSY algorithm

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