• 关键词：特大城市  交通模型  承载力  北京市  机动车在驶量

• 基金项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(No.2005CB724205)

• 詹歆晔
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 郁亚娟
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 郭怀成
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 王真
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 刘永
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 周丰
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 摘要：基于"机动车在驶量"构建了由路网资源、燃油供给和大气环境3个模块组成的交通承载力宏观定量模型,并选择北京市城区作为案例验证模型.结果显示,该模型能够较好的反映资源、环境与交通之间的关系.北京市城区交通承载力在2005年出行比率和平均时速23km·h^-1条件下为45.35×10⁴辆,其中轿车为29.73×10⁴辆,北京市交通发展面对的直接压力是机动车在驶量偏高.

• Abstract：A macroscopic model was established to measure the support capacity of a metropolitan transportation system.The model consists of three modules:the road network,fuel consumption,and atmospheric environment capacity.Anovel concept,vehicle on road(VOR),was proposed in this study to better describe the support capacity,which means the instant number of the on-road vehicles at a certain average velocity;and the larger the VOR,the greater the environmental pressure.The model was validated and demonstrated to analyze the metropolitan transportation system in Beijing.The results showed that,at an average vehicle velocity of 23km·h^-1,the VOR in Beijing is 453500,including 297300 cars.Thus,over-loading traffic volume is the challenge facing the transportation system in Beijing.The model and VOR can play a central role in reflecting the relationships among the resource,the environment and transportation in metropolitan areas.

• Key words：macroscopic metropolitan  transportation model  support capacity  Beijing  vehicle on road(VOR)

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