• 关键词：局部灵敏度分析  摩尔斯分类筛选法  SWMM模型  水质参数  降雨径流污染

• 基金项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(No.2006CB403400)

• 赵冬泉
• 1. 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084; 2. 北京清华城市规划设计研究院环境与市政所, 北京 100084

• 陈吉宁
• 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084

• 王浩正
• 北京清华城市规划设计研究院环境与市政所, 北京 100084

• 杜鹏飞
• 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084

• 王浩昌
• 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084

• 孔德军
• 北京世奥森林公园开发经营有限公司, 北京 100084

• 摘要：在城市降雨径流污染模拟研究中,参数灵敏度分析是进行模型率定和验证的必要研究环节,同时也是理解非点源污染产生和变化过程及进行城市降雨径流污染管理的重要参考.运用修正的摩尔斯分类筛选法(Morris screening method)对暴雨管理模型(Storm Water Management Model,简称SWMM)的水质参数进行局部灵敏度分析.研究结果显示,占区域比例较大的不透水地表的累积和冲刷参数灵敏度较高;在强降雨过程中,降雨中污染物浓度的灵敏度较高.研究表明,对占区域比例较大的不透水地表的累积和冲刷参数进行仔细识别,对于非点源污染模型的验证具有重要意义;强降雨时雨水本底浓度的测量误差会影响降雨径流污染模拟的准确度.

• Abstract：Sensitivity analysis of urban rainfall-runoff simulation is a crucial procedure for model calibration and validation.It also provides important information for learning about the rainfall-runoff process and removing non-point source pollution.An improved Morris screening method was used to analyze the local sensitivity of water quality parameters of the Storm Water Management Model(SWMM)with the aim of identifying model parameters.Results showed that the sensitivity indexes of the water quality parameters can be influenced by many factors,such as rain intensity and land-use type.The buildup and washoff parameters of the most dominant impervious land uses have relatively high sensitivity indexes.The background value of rainfall quality has the highest sensitivity in high intensity rainfall.The results showed that parameter identification and pollution control of the dominant impervious areas are important for simulation and removal of rainfall-runoff pollution.The measurement error of background concentration of rainfall will impact the accuracy of rainfall-runoff simulation.

• Key words：local sensitivity analysis  Morris screening method  SWMM  water quality parameters  rainfall-runoff pollution

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