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环境经济与环境管理

Application of a water quality model in pollution load estimation in Dongguan

摘要：为解决水环境规划中经常碰到的污染源数据缺失问题,以水质数学模型为基础,通过污染源-水质响应关系,建立了从水质监测数据推算污染源负荷的计算方法.主要步骤包括:通过水质模型建立污染源负荷和水质数据之间的响应关系;提出估算污染源负荷的优化目标和约束方程;优化问题求解,评估污染源负荷估算效果,确定污染源负荷.同时,以东莞市为例,对该市用水量和污染源特征进行了分析,并采用圣维南方程,建立了一维河流水质模型.最后以东莞市2005年水质调查数据为基础,对比实测水质数据和模型模拟结果,对东莞市2005年的污染源负荷进行了评估.结果表明,东莞2005年生活和工业污染源CODCr排放量为25.2×10⁴t,其中,生活源占60.4%,工业污染源占39.6%.东莞污染源负荷估算结果能够较好地反映当时条件下的水质变化过程.

Abstract：Lack of pollution data is a problem frequently faced in water environmental planning.To address the problem,a load estimation approach was established based on a mathematical water quality model via pollution source-water quality response relationship.This methodology includes three major steps.The first step is to build the pollution load and water quality response relationship with the mathematical model.Then the optimized target and constraint equations to calculate pollution load are proposed.The last step is to solve the optimization problem,assess the effect of estimation,and determine the pollution load from the sources.Taking Dongguan as a case study,we analyzed water consumption data and pollution status.Then a one-dimensional water quality model was established with Saint-Venant and dilution-diffusion equations.Based on the water quality investigation data in 2005,the pollution loads were assessed by comparing to the water quality modeling results and field monitoring data.In 2005,the domestic and industrial CODCr load was estimated to be 25.2×10⁴ t,of which the domestic pollution load was 60.4%,and the industrial pollution load was 39.6%.The estimated pollution load accurately reflected the water quality change at that time in Dongguan.