• 关键词：白洋淀  水质时空分布  综合指数  灰色聚类  影响因子

• 基金项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(No.2006CB403403);国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(No.2008ZX07209-009)

• 张婷
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 水环境模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

• 刘静玲
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 水环境模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

• 王雪梅
• 北京师范大学环境学院, 水环境模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100875

• 摘要：作为海河流域重要湖泊湿地,白洋淀的水环境直接影响着流域生态健康和环境安全.综合运用灰色聚类法、综合污染指数和单因子污染指数法探讨白洋淀水质时空变化规律及关键影响因子.在时间序列上,白洋淀水质1973～2007年年际变化总体呈现出恶化趋势,劣于Ⅲ类水水质,由20世纪70年代的14.3%上升到2000年以后的83%,水质恶化严重;2006年内水质变化综合污染指数春(52.9)>夏(11.4)>冬(9.81)>秋(8.88),且TP的综合污染指数最高达到14.86,BOD₅综合污染指数最低为7.67.空间分布上,以南刘庄为核心的西北部区域污染最为严重,其次为白洋淀东北部区域的烧车淀、王家寨、光淀张庄、枣林庄和圈头;采蒲台和端村的东南和西南区域污染最轻.通过对自然和社会影响因素的比较分析,结果表明,影响白洋淀水质的关键自然因子是入淀水量,从1973～2007年,历年入淀水量远达不到淀区最小需水量.社会因子包括产业和产业结构两方面因子,产业因子有保定市第一产业、安新县第二产业和保定市第三产业,相关系数分别为0.771、0.708和0.624;产业结构因子有安新县工业和安新县渔业和保定市农业的发展,相关系数分别为0.746、0.734和0.661.此外,安新县和保定市人口增长与水质的相关系数也分别达到0.731和0.690.建议:①控制入淀水质、淀区面源和内源污染;②空间上分区管理,可分为污染控制区、综合改善区和生态恢复区;③加强生态的监测和预警,完善白洋淀流域环境公共政策和产业环境管理.

• Abstract：As an important lake in the Haihe river basin,the Baiyangdian Lake plays an important role in the ecological health and environmental safety of the whole basin.To investigate the spatial-temporal variation of the water quality and the main factors affecting the quality,we employed grey clustering,comprehensive pollution index and single factor pollution indexes.The results showed that the water quality of Baiyangdian Lake has generally decreased since 1973.Specifically,the proportion of water with worse quality than class Ⅲ increased from 14.3% in 1973 to 83% in 2007.The order of the comprehensive pollution index in the year 2006 was spring > summer > winter > autumn.The comprehensive pollution index of TPwas the highest among the four parameters,reaching 14.86,while the comprehensive pollution index of BOD₅ was the lowest,with an average of 7.67.In spatial terms,the order of pollution was northwest > northeast > southeast and southwest.Comparative analysis of the natural and social aspects indicated that the key natural impact factor was the quantity of inflow,which was far lower than the minimum ecological water demand.The social impact factors included the primary industry in Baoding,the secondary industry in Anxin and the tertiary industry in Baoding,with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.771,0.708 and 0.624,respectively.The industry and fishery of Anxin and the agriculture in Baoding were key factors with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.746,0.734 and 0.661,respectively.In addition,the correlation coefficients between the populations of Anxin and Baoding and water quality were 0.731 and 0.690,respectively.To improve the water quality of the lake,we suggest:① Control the water quality of the inflow,the non-point pollution and internal pollution of Baiyangdian;② Implement regionalized management (e.g.,the lake could be divided into a pollution control area,a comprehensive improvement area and a key protected area);③Enhance the ecological monitoring and early warning system,and improve environmental public policy and industrial environment management.

• Key words：Baiyangdian Lake  water quality spatial-temporal variation  comprehensive pollution index  grey clustering  impact factor

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