• 关键词：日最大排污量  总量分配  基尼系数  排污交易  优化模型

• 基金项目：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(No2008ZX07102-001);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(No2005CB724205)

• 盛虎
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 李娜
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 郭怀成
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 杨永辉
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 刘慧
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 周丰
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 何成杰
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 王翠榆
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 摘要：流域容量总量的公平分配方法和排污交易潜力分析是目前流域管理研究的热点.采用层次分析法(AHP)和基尼系数交互反馈的方法研究了基于人口和经济公平的流域容量总量分配方案,并在此基础上建立了不考虑交易成本时的流域排污交易优化模型.将该模型用于分析邛海流域TP交易,得到污染控制总成本最小时的TP削减工程方案和排污交易方案.通过对比交易和未交易时的污染治理最小总成本发现,在不考虑交易成本时,排污交易有节约22.35%总成本的潜力.由于未考虑交易成本,这并不能说明邛海流域排污交易是可行的.但通过这种方法可以确定邛海流域排污交易可行的最大交易成本为1.56×10⁹元·a^-1.为了增大排污交易的可行性,应减少信息收集、谈判、管理、监测等方面的交易成本使其低于这一阈值.提出的排污交易优化模型能够提供交易信息,具有降低交易成本的潜力.

• Abstract：The analysis of equitable allocation of waste load and the potential for emission trading is currently a research focus of watershed management.The demographic and economic equity of waste load allocation at the watershed scale is calculated based on an integrated method of cross-feedback of analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and Gini coefficient.An optimal model is developed for emission trading optimization without considering transaction cost.The Lake Qionghai watershed is taken as a case study to seek minimum total phosphorus(TP) reduction cost with and without an emission trading program.Comparison of the minimum costs with and without emission trading shows that there will be a 22.35% decrease of cost when including emission trading in the model.It should be mentioned that the results cannot be used directly to support the feasibility of emission trading of the waste load in the Lake Qionghai watershed since the transaction cost is not included in the model.However,the maximum and feasible transaction cost threshold of emission trading in Qionghai can be obtained from the model as 156 million yuan per year.It is possible for emission trading to be cost-effective if the costs for information collection,negotiation,management and monitoring are lower than the threshold.The optimization model presented in this paper,therefore,can provide emission trading information and has the potential to reduce transaction costs.

• Key words：Total Maximum Daily Loads  total amount allocation  Gini coefficient  emission trading  optimization model

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