• 关键词：CO₂减排  山东  水泥  情景分析

• 基金项目：国家“十一五”科技支撑项目(No.50578020)

• 毛紫薇
• 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084

• 王灿
• 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084

• 陈吉宁
• 清华大学环境科学与工程系, 北京 100084

• 摘要：为了评估山东省水泥行业的CO₂减排潜力,利用长期能源替代规划系统软件建立了LEAP-ShandongCement模型,对山东省水泥行业的CO₂排放量及相应的减排潜力进行了模拟评估.同时,在模型中运用情景分析方法,研究了基准情景、政策情景和技术情景下山东水泥行业2007～2020年的能源需求和CO₂排放量以及相应的节能减排潜力.结果表明,到2020年,相对于基准情景,政策情景和技术情景下的减排潜力分别为8.5%和14.4%.因此,山东省水泥行业具有一定的减排潜力.实现减排主要依靠窑型的替代和相应技术的进步,其中,余热发电技术改进为近期的重点减排技术.总体而言,水泥行业减排兼具显著的环境、经济和社会效益.

• Abstract：In order to assess the emission reduction potential of Shandong Province's cement sector,3 scenarios (baseline scenario,policy scenario and technical scenario) are generated through a LEAP-Shandong Cement model based on long-term Energy Planning System software,and the CO₂ emissions and the corresponding reduction potential of Shandong Province's cement industry are simulated. In the modeling process,scenario analysis is employed to study energy demand,CO₂ emissions and the corresponding potential of energy-saving and emission reduction of Shandong's cement sector from 2007～2020. By 2020,compared with the baseline scenario,the CO₂ emission reduction potentials of policy scenario and technical scenario are 8.5 percent and 14.4 percent respectively. It is concluded that the cement industry in Shandong Province has a certain emission reduction potential,which mainly depends on the substitution of kiln types and the promotion of advanced technologies. With the development focus shifted on large-scaled NSP kilns gradually,waste heat cogeneration will play an important role in the near future to improve the energy efficiency of cement production,which has significant environmental,economic and social benefits for the CO₂ abatement of the cement industry.

• Key words：CO₂ emission reduction  Shandong Province  cement sector  scenario analysis

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