• 关键词：环境-经济耦合系统  能值  协整  Granger因果关系  向量误差修正模型  庆阳

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金(No.40871061)

• 张子龙
• 1. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 兰州 730000; 2. 佛蒙特大学 Gund生态经济研究所, 伯灵顿, VT, 05405, 美国; 3. 兰州大学旅游规划设计研究院, 兰州 730000

• 陈兴鹏
• 1. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 兰州 730000; 2. 兰州大学旅游规划设计研究院, 兰州 730000

• 焦文婷
• 1. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 兰州 730000; 2. 兰州大学旅游规划设计研究院, 兰州 730000

• 逯承鹏
• 1. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 兰州 730000; 2. 兰州大学旅游规划设计研究院, 兰州 730000

• 摘要：分析了1978～2007年庆阳市环境-经济系统的能值流量与能值效率的演变轨迹.并以环境负荷率(ELR)、能值废弃率(EWR)作为环境压力指标,运用协整检验、Granger因果检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM),通过分析人均GDP与环境压力指标变量之间在时序维度上的因果关系和相互影响程度,进一步阐述经济与环境系统的耦合关系及其动态特征.结果表明,庆阳市经济发展对不可更新资源的依赖度大,环境-经济系统的产出效率总体下降,但环境负荷不断上升.计量分析表明,经济增长与环境压力之间存在单向因果关系,且已形成"恶性循环圈",环境-经济耦合系统表现出不可持续的发展态势.

• Abstract：In this paper,we evaluate the evolutionary trajectory of emergy flow and emergy efficiency of the Coupled Environmental-Economic System (CEES) in Qingyang,Gansu Province for 30 years from 1978～2007. We applied the Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test to examine the co-integration and casual relationship between per capital GDPand environmental pressure measured by environmental load ratio and emergy waste ratio. Subsequently,by adopting the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM),we analyzed the strength of the causality so as to further elaborate the coupled relationship between the economic and environmental systems and its dynamic features. The results indicate that the economic growth relies heavily on non-renewable resources in Qingyang,and the yield efficiency of CEEShas been declining,whereas,at the same time,the environmental load has been rising. The econometric analysis indicated that there is unidirectional causality from economic growth to environmental pressure. Additionally,a vicious cycle of economic development and environmental degradation has been created. Thus,the CEESof Qingyang presents an unsustainable evolutionary trend in the future.

• Key words：coupled environmental-economic system  emergy  co-integration  Granger casual relationship  vector error correction model  Qingyang City

• 
  摘要点击次数： 2595 全文下载次数： 3108