区域环境与生态
张建龙,解建仓,汪妮,黄俊铭,申瑜.基于改进蒙特卡罗方法的再生水回用健康风险评价[J].环境科学学报,2010,30(11):2353-2360
基于改进蒙特卡罗方法的再生水回用健康风险评价
- Health risk assessment in the reuse of reclaimed water based on improved Monte Carlo method
- 基金项目：国家高技术发展研究计划(863)资助项目(No2006AA01A126);中国水利水电科学研究院开放研究基金项目;陕西省教育厅2009年科学技术研究计划资助项目(No09JK657)
- 作者
- 单位
- 张建龙
- 西安理工大学 教育部西北水资源与环境生态重点实验室, 西安 710048
- 解建仓
- 西安理工大学 教育部西北水资源与环境生态重点实验室, 西安 710048
- 汪妮
- 西安理工大学 教育部西北水资源与环境生态重点实验室, 西安 710048
- 黄俊铭
- 西安理工大学 教育部西北水资源与环境生态重点实验室, 西安 710048
- 申瑜
- 山西省水文水资源勘测局, 太原 030001
- 摘要：传统的健康风险评价主要是进行单值点计算的确定性评价,为了解决再生水回用对人体健康风险影响的不确定性,利用Logistic混沌系统方法来产生可靠、简单、高效的随机数,进而改进传统蒙特卡罗方法中利用线性同余产生随机数的方法,以提高随机数输入的可靠性程度,最终提出了一种基于改进蒙特卡罗算法的再生水回用健康风险评价方法.最后,以西安市某污水处理厂再生水中的风险指标(As、Cd、Cr、Mn、Pb和Zn)为研究对象进行蒙特卡罗模拟计算.结果表明,各指标满足终生可接受风险水平的概率分别为97.25%、93.48%、97.86%、98.69%、97.13%和96.38%,影响各指标进入人体的单位体重日均暴露剂量和终生风险水平的主要因素为污染物浓度和胃肠吸收因子.研究结果可为再生水回用的不确定性健康风险评价提供一定的依据.
- Abstract：Traditional health risk appraisal focuses mainly on certainty of uniformizable point calculation.We developed a health risk appraisal method using Monte Carlo simulation based on improved random theory to determine the uncertainty in risk of application of reclaimed water.Since random numbers in Monte Carlo simulations depend excessively on the assumed distribution and model,a reliable,simple and economical random number can be generated by means of a logistic chaotic system.Use of this system improves the random number generation method of linear congruence in Monte Carlo simulation so that the reliability of random number input can be increased.Risk indexes(As、Cd、Cr、Mn、Pb and Zn) of reclaimed water from a wastewater treatment plant in Xi'an were taken as research objects for conducting Monte Carlo simulations.The results showed that:indicators to meet the lifetime probability of acceptable risk levels were 97.25%,93.48%,97.86%,98.69%,97.13% and 96.38%,the main factors of influence indexes into the body and lifetime average daily dose level of risk exposure were the pollutant concentration and gastrointestinal absorption factor.The results can be used in the research on the uncertainty in health risk appraisal of reclaimed water.
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