研究报告
王学远,蒋维楣,刘红年,张力,谢文彰,赵伟.重点产业源增长对北部湾地区气态污染物模拟的影响[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(2):358-372
重点产业源增长对北部湾地区气态污染物模拟的影响
- Simulations on the effect of increments in key industrial sources on gaseous pollutant concentrations in the Beibu Gulf
- 基金项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(No.2010CB428501,2006CB400506);国家自然科学基金项目(No.40775014)
- 作者
- 单位
- 王学远
- 南京大学大气科学学院, 南京 210093
- 蒋维楣
- 南京大学大气科学学院, 南京 210093
- 刘红年
- 南京大学大气科学学院, 南京 210093
- 张力
- 南京大学大气科学学院, 南京 210093
- 谢文彰
- 环境保护部华南环境科学研究所, 广州 510655
- 赵伟
- 环境保护部华南环境科学研究所, 广州 510655
- 摘要：根据污染源普查资料制作北部湾地区2007年人为排放源清单,以及中期/远期参比情景(REF15/REF20)和远期调控情景(SCEi20)下的排放源清单.采用WRF-Chem模拟北部湾地区空气质量现状及未来变化.2007年SO2和NO2月平均质量浓度模拟值与监测值比较吻合.广东、广西(海南)地区污染物质量浓度较高(低).跨界污染特征表明污染物质量浓度受局地排放源的影响较大,外来排放源的贡献较小,广东对广西和海南地区的影响相对较大.未来情景下污染物质量浓度的变化主要受排放源变化的影响.REF15情景下茂名市SO2排放源减小导致SO2预测浓度降低,其它城市由于排放源增大,SO2和NO2的预测浓度均升高,O3由于化学反应比较复杂,因此不同城市质量浓度既有升高也有降低.REF20情景下各城市排放源大幅增加,因此SO2和NO2的预测浓度大幅上升,O3的预测浓度增幅较小.SCEi20情景下SO2、NO2、以及O3预测浓度的增幅略小于REF20情景.
- Abstract：An anthropogenic emissions inventory for the Beibu Gulf for the year 2007 was developed based on emissions census data. Medium/long term reference scenarios (REF15/REF20) and long-term control scenarios (SCEi20) were also projected based on the industrial planning data. Using these emissions data,the present air quality and future changes under different scenarios in the Beibu Gulf were depicted by WRF-Chem. The simulated monthly mean SO2 and NO2 concentrations are close to the observations. The levels of pollutant concentrations are high in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces,but low in Hainan. The straddling transportation characteristics indicate that the pollutant concentrations are mainly affected by the local emissions,while the emissions from other regions are less important. On the other hand,the emissions from Guangdong province have a relatively large impact on SO2 and NO2 concentrations in Guangxi and Hainan provinces. The emission changes have significant impacts on future air quality. Under the REF15 scenarios,the levels of SO2 and NO2 increase in the Beibu Gulf due to the significant increment of emissions,except for SO2 in Maoming which decreases due to the reduced SO2 emissions. Since O3 undergoes more complex chemical reactions,the concentrations increase in several cities,but decrease in others. The significantly increased emissions under the REF20 scenarios lead to a large increase of SO2 and NO2 concentrations,however,the increment is relatively small for O3. The increment of gaseous pollutant concentrations is somewhat smaller for the SCEi20 scenarios than those of REF20.
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