• 关键词：大柳塔矿区  乌兰木伦河  径流量  影响因素

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金(No.D0110-40771083)

• 张思锋
• 西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院, 西安 710049

• 马策
• 西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院, 西安 710049

• 张立
• 西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院, 西安 710049

• 摘要：矿产资源开采与水资源破坏相关性显著,因而定量分析开采的各类行为对水资源的破坏程度对干旱资源开发区具有重要意义.本研究应用有限分布滞后模型改进了多元回归模型,进而建立了煤炭开采与河流径流量相关关系的代数表达式,并利用其分析大柳塔矿区和乌兰木伦河的调查资料,进而说明煤炭开采是否是影响煤炭开采区河流径流量的主要因素.结果表明,在影响乌兰木伦河径流量变化的诸多因素中,自然因素占10.5%,人为因素占89.5%.在人为因素中,生产生活用水占12.2%,采煤活动占77.3%.在采煤活动中,矿井疏排水占24.8%,由煤炭开采导致的地表塌陷占52.5%.

• Abstract：The resource availability of water is influenced by exploiting coal deposits,and it is also important for sustainable development in arid mining areas.In this study,to determine whether the key factor affecting the runoff is the usage in the coal mine area,we constructed an algebraic model to describe the relation between coal mining and runoff through optimizing a multiple model by applying the finite distributed lag model.We used this model to analyze the data from the Ulan Moron River in the Daliuta mine area.The results showed that the natural regulators and human regulators accounted for 10.5% and 89.5% respectively of the effects on runoff of the Ulan Moron River.The surface subsidence and mine water discharge account for 52.5% and 24.8% respectively,and the actions of mining coal are a key influence on the Ulan Moron River in the Daliuta mine area.

• Key words：Daliuta mine area  Ulan Moron River  runoff  impact factor

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