• 关键词：负荷削减  蒙特卡洛  水质模型  情景分析  滇池

• 基金项目：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(No.2008ZX07102-001)

• 邹锐
• 1. Tetra Tech, Inc. 10306 Eaton Place, Ste 340, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA;
  2. 昆明诚锐环保科技有限公司,昆明 650101

• 朱翔
• 中国昆明高原湖泊国际研究中心,昆明 650034

• 贺彬
• 中国昆明高原湖泊国际研究中心,昆明 650034

• 赵磊
• 中国昆明高原湖泊国际研究中心,昆明 650034

• 周丰
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京 100871

• 嵇晓燕
• 中国环境监测总站,北京 100012

• 刘永
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京 100871

• 郭怀成
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京 100871

• 摘要：为定量了解滇池外海水质对流域污染负荷削减率的响应变化程度,并评估相关决策的潜在风险,在长期的水质模拟结果基础之上,本文使用内嵌非线性响应函数的蒙特卡罗模拟方法,在2个不确定性水平下(5%和10%的变异范围)分析滇池外海为达到3个水质目标情景(Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类和Ⅴ类)的污染负荷削减及其不确定性.模型结果表明,在2种不确定性水平下,基于最大日负荷总量(TMDL)情景分析所得到的Ⅴ类水和Ⅲ类水目标方案都比较安全、水质超标的风险很小,而相应于Ⅳ类水质目标的方案则具有中等高的水质超标风险,其安全系数较Ⅲ类和Ⅴ类水质目标的方案稍低;流域污染负荷削减可有效降低Chl a的浓度,但即便达到Ⅲ类水质,滇池蓝藻水华爆发的风险仍很大.

• Abstract：Water quality modeling can provide an effective way to determine permissible waste load and predict consequences of different waste load allocation scenarios, while related uncertainty analysis can provide decision makers useful information regarding the potential risk in decision makings. For Lake Dianchi, the key management problem is to determine how the water quality would respond to the load reduction in the watershed. To support risk based decision making, an analytical response function was derived based on the numerical water quality model and was embedded into a Monte Carlo simulation as a surrogate of the time-consuming simulation model for computational efficiency. Two different levels of uncertainties, 5% and 10% stochastic variability, are considered in this analysis. The model results indicated that under the two uncertainty levels, the load reduction corresponding to Class Ⅲ and Ⅴ water quality targets are relatively safer with lower water quality violation risk. On the contrary, the load reduction corresponding to the Class Ⅳ water quality target is moderately risky that has higher probability of violating the corresponding water quality targets than the scenarios for Class Ⅲ and Ⅴ targets. The Monte Carlo simulation for Chlorophyll-a response showed that the reduction of nutrient can result in significant decrease in chlorophyll-a. However, there is still relatively higher risk of algal bloom even though the water quality target achieves the most aggressive Class Ⅲ target in Lake Dianchi.

• Key words：load reduction  Monte Carlo Simulation  water quality modeling  scenario analysis  Lake Dianchi

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