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研究论文

肖庆聪,魏源送,王亚炜,钟佳,于淼,杨勇,郁达伟,曾凡刚,郑祥,孙贻超,周滨.天津滨海新区湿地退化驱动因素分析[J].环境科学学报,2012,32(2):480-488

Driving factors of coastal wetland degradation in Binhai New Area of Tianjin

摘要：以1993年设立的天津滨海新区为例,基于遥感影像分析和社会经济发展等数据,采用典型相关分析方法定量分析1993—2007年之间天津滨海新区湿地退化的驱动因素.研究结果表明,天津滨海新区湿地退化严重,自然湿地面积急剧减少,河流类自然湿地面积和滩涂类自然湿地面积分别由1993年的117.04 km²和1098.60 km²下降到2007年的99.63 km²和721.08 km²;人均GDP、水产养殖和非农业人口比例依次是天津滨海新区湿地退化的最主要驱动因素,它们的典型载荷系数分别为-0.986、-0.918和-0.836;在次要驱动因素上,污水量、年均降雨量依次是盐田类人工湿地面积和水稻田类人工湿地面积变化的驱动因素,它们的典型载荷系数分别为0.692、-0.480;二产占比、三产占比是非湿地面积变化的驱动因素,它们的典型载荷系数分别为-0.541和0.639.

Abstract：In this study, the driving factors of the coastal wetland degradation in Binhai New Area of Tianjin from 1993 to 2007 were analyzed by the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) method, on the basis of the remote sensing data (RS) in 1993, 1999, 2003, 2007, respectively, together with the socio-economic and meteorological data from 1993 to 2007. Obviously, serious degradation of the coastal wetland in Binhai New Area of Tianjin occurred as sharp reduction of river-type natural wetland area and beach-type natural wetland area from117.04 km², 1098.60 km² in 1993 to 99.63 km², 721.08 km² in 2007, respectively. Results of CCA showed that per capita GDP, output of aquatic products and non-agricultural population ratio in turn were the most important driving factors of the coastal wetland degradation in Binhai New Area of Tianjin, and the loading coefficients of these factors were -0.986, -0.918 and -0.836, respectively. The secondary driving factors of the salt pan-type artificial wetland and the paddy-type artificial wetland area changes were the amount of discharged sewage and the annual rainfall, respectively; while those of the non-wetland area changes were the secondary industry proportion and the tertiary industry proportion in turn.

Key words：coastal wetland degradation driving factors canonical correlation analysis