研究报告
李新,石建屏,曹洪.基于指标体系和层次分析法的洱海流域水环境承载力动态研究[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(6):1338-1344
基于指标体系和层次分析法的洱海流域水环境承载力动态研究
- Water environment carrying capacity of Erhai Lake based on index system and analytic hierarchy process
- 基金项目：四川省教育厅资助科研项目(No.10ZC117);绵阳师范学院科研基金项目(No.QD2007A002)
- 作者
- 单位
- 李新
- 绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院,绵阳 621000
- 石建屏
- 绵阳职业技术学院材料工程系,绵阳 621000
- 曹洪
- 绵阳师范学院资源环境工程学院,绵阳 621000
- 摘要：为了定量分析人口增长、经济发展、资源短缺和环境污染等因素对流域水环境的综合影响,根据水环境承载力概念模型并结合洱海流域水环境现状,建立了水环境承载力多目标优化模型.同时,选取人口、灌溉面积、国民生产总值(GDP)、化学需氧量(COD)、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)作为水资源和水质量承载力指标,并运用层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标对湖区水环境承载力的权重,最后,运用指标体系评价法分别计算出2003—2009年洱海流域水环境承载力.结果表明,流域内人口承载超标,经济承载压力增长显著,富营养化指标——总氮(TN)多数年份超标且波动较大;洱海流域水环境承载力过载与实际情况吻合,相对而言,水资源承载力影响程度更大.水环境承载力的研究可为该流域的经济发展规划、生态环境保护和水资源可持续利用提供科学的依据和建议.
- Abstract：In this work, we assess quantitatively the comprehensive effect of population increase, economic development, resource shortage and environment pollution on the water environment of Erhai Lake in Yunnan. According to the basic concept of water environment carrying capacity (WECC) and the specific conditions of Erhai lake, a model was established to optimize the water environment carrying capacity with population, irrigation area, gross domestic product (GDP), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP) selected as an index system (IS) of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) and water quality carrying capacity (WQCC). Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of the indexes on the water environment carrying capacity. The 2003—2009 water environment carrying capacity was calculated by IS-AHP. The results indicated that population exceeded the carrying standard, economic pressure has increased rapidly and the eutrophication index (TN) exceeds the carrying standard, fluctuating violently in most years in the water basin. The overloaded WECC is in accord with the real conditions of Erhai lake and the WRCC has greater influence than the WQCC. The research may provide scientific reasons and suggestions for an economic development plan, ecological environment protection and sustainable development of the water resource.
- Key words：water environment carrying capacity index system (IS) Erhai Lake analytic hierarchy process (AHP) gross domestic product (GDP) chemical oxygen demand (COD)
摘要点击次数： 3754 全文下载次数： 4672
