• 关键词：流域水质管理  模拟模型  优化模型  机器学习  适应性管理

• 基金项目：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(No.2008ZX07102-001)

• 盛虎
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京 100871

• 向男
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京 100871

• 郭怀成
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京 100871

• 刘永
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京 100871

• 摘要：针对目前流域水污染难以有效控制的局面,依据已有的流域水文、水动力、水质、水生态相关机理模拟模型的研究,在考虑了流域社会经济发展条件的基础上,构建了流域水质管理优化决策模型框架体系.基于该框架体系,本文从简单流域系统优化模型、模拟与优化联合模型和时空尺度复杂优化模型3个方面对流域优化决策模型的研究发展历程进行综述,并指出其各自在发展过程中所出现的问题.最后,提出了优化决策模型面临的瓶颈问题,并从模型结构简化和适应性管理两个方面提出了相关的解决思路.

• Abstract：In light of the difficulties in effective water pollution control, this study formulated a watershed optimal management decision model framework based on relevant researches on mechanistic modeling of watershed hydrology, hydrodynamics, water quality and aquatic ecology. The decision model framework also took into account the existing socio-economic development status in watersheds. Based on this framework, we reviewed the history and current status of watershed optimal decision support models from three different aspects: simple systematic optimization models, coupled simulation-optimization model, and complicated optimization models on different temporal and spatial scales. Meanwhile, the problems during the development of watershed optimization models were identified. Finally, in order to solve the bottle-neck of computation for watershed optimization models, simplification of the structure of simulation models and adaptive management were recommended.

• Key words：watershed water-quality management  simulation model  optimization model  machine learning  adaptive management

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