• 关键词：分布特征  分级预报模式  典型气象因素  灰霾预报  预警方案

• 基金项目：广东省气象局气象科技项目(No.2011B14)

• 杨琳
• 深圳市气象局,深圳 518040

• 杨红龙
• 深圳市气象局,深圳 518040

• 陈嘉晔
• 深圳市环境监测中心站,深圳 518049

• 林楚雄
• 深圳市环境监测中心站,深圳 518049

• 摘要：基于深圳市国家气候观象台1953—2010年的灰霾UV统计资料、气象要素值、灰霾出现前期及同期的地面和850 hPa的天气形势资料和自动站的能见度统计资料以及深圳市环境监测站的1980—2010年污染物浓度资料,对深圳市灰霾天气的出现规律及影响要素特征进行了概括分析.在此基础上运用逐步回归的方法,筛选出影响灰霾主要因子,建立未来1—3 d的能见度预报方程.同时通过对灰霾出现前天气形势的分析和归纳,建立灰霾潜势预报的思路.并进一步对灰霾天气的典型因子进行权重分级.最后集成以上3种预测方法,归纳出灰霾预警方案,形成灰霾预警预报模型.利用实测结果对模型检验,结果表明:该模型具有一定的准确率和可靠性,对灰霾预测具有较好的应用价值,为灰霾防治和预警系统的建立提供科学依据.

• Abstract：The haze occurrence characteristics and affecting factors in Shenzhen are summarized based on statistics and meteorological data between 1953 and 2010, ground-level and 850 hPa meteorological data during haze from Shenzhen Observatory, and pollutants concentration data between 1980 and 2010 from Shenzhen Environmental Monitoring Station. Main contributing factors are selected to develop the next 1-3 day visibility prediction equation using stepwise regression procedures. The idea of haze potential prediction is then proposed based on analysis and generalization of the weather condition before haze. Typical weather condition before and during haze is analyzed for haze potential prediction. Haze forecast is further achieved through weighted classification of typical factors. Finally, based on the above analysis, haze forecast and early warning method is designed. The results shows high accuracy and reliability in this kind of comprehensive forecast method It also provides some scientific reference in establishing haze prevention and early warning system.

• Key words：haze distribution  graded forecasting model  typical meteorological factors  haze forecast  haze early warning method

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