• 关键词：能源消费情景  大气污染物  北京居民  健康风险评价  死亡人数

• 基金项目：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(No.105560GK)

• 谢元博
• 环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室, 北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875

• 李巍
• 环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室, 北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875

• 摘要：保护居民健康是北京市能源系统优化管理和大气污染治理的重要目标.本研究基于北京市的社会经济发展目标并结合相关节能减排和环保要求,针对全市2010-2020年间的能源消费分别设计了高、中、低3种约束情景,通过LEAP模型预测了全市至2020年的能源消费量与SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀和PM_2.5等4种主要大气污染物的排放强度,并采用泊松回归模型对3种情景下主城区居民受环境空气中这4种大气污染物的暴露危害所导致的健康风险进行了评估.结果显示:相对低约束情景,高约束情景至2020年可避免与SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀和PM_2.5污染相关的死亡危害分别为2663、6359、4720和4104人·a^-1,而且在高约束情景下煤炭消费比重每下降1%,可相应地避免约1400人·a^-1的污染急性死亡.由此建议北京市实施更加严格的节能和减排措施,严控煤炭消费总量,进一步优化能源结构,最大程度地降低能源消费导致的大气污染所产生的居民健康风险.

• Abstract：One of the major targets of energy system management and air pollution control in Beijing is to protect public health. Here, three preliminary scenarios of energy consumption from 2010 to 2020 are formulated based on the social and economic development plans in Beijing. The three scenarios are then posed by high level, moderate level and low level restrictions of energy consumptions, respectively, by taking account of the policies or requirements for energy saving and emission reduction. Under the three assumed scenarios, the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model is employed to predict total energy consumptions and emissions of the four major air pollutants including SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5. The predicted emissions are converted into concentrations of the pollutants in the ambient air. The health risk of the resident in exposure of the four pollutants is assessed by the Poisson regression model. The results show that in the high level restriction scenario, 2663, 6359, 4720 and 4104 less cases of annual mortality associated with SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, respectively, can be avoided in the year 2020 with respect to the low level restriction scenario. 1400 cases of acute mortality due to air pollution can be avoided in a year with every 1% decline of coal consumption in total energy consumptions. In order to minimize potential risks on the resident health in exposure of air pollution, it is recommended that Beijing should adopt more strict energy saving and emission reduction policies, optimize energy structure, and control the consumption of coal promptly.

• Key words：energy consumption scenario  air pollutants  Beijing resident  health risk assessment  mortality

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