研究论文
高伟,陈岩,郭怀成.基于“评价-模拟-优化”的流域环境经济决策模型研究[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(1):250-258
基于“评价-模拟-优化”的流域环境经济决策模型研究
- Coupled model of “assessment-simulation-optimization” for basin environmental economic decision-making
- 基金项目：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（No.2013ZX07102-006）；国家自然科学基金（No.41222002）
- 作者
- 单位
- 高伟
- 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871
- 陈岩
- 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871
- 郭怀成
- 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京 100871
- 摘要：流域管理是一个具有经济、社会与水环境等多维发展目标的复杂系统，不同目标之间存在复杂的非线性响应关系，如何模拟、协调、优化各种目标，是长期制约流域环境经济优化决策的关键技术瓶颈之一.当前在构建流域模型时往往缺乏全局性和系统性的考虑，采用线性单向建模思路，忽略了流域环境经济问题的复杂性、综合性和整体性，难以实现最优决策.针对这一不足，结合现有流域模型的建模经验与流域量化管理的需求，从系统优化发展的角度出发，基于环境经济协调度模型、系统动力学模拟模型和Powell优化模型提出了流域环境经济优化决策模型（简称ASO模型）.该模型弥补了现有流域模型仅能在概念上描述因果反馈关系的不足，在数值模型上实现流域经济-社会-水环境各子系统中反馈回路的闭合，提供了一种对流域系统复杂反馈关系的模拟方法.最后，基于该模型对抚仙湖流域进行了案例研究.
- Abstract：Basin management is a complex system involving multiple objectives of economy, society and water environment. Highly nonlinear response relationships were existed between objectives. Effective simulation, coordination and optimization of different objectives in a basin system have long been a limit factor for decision making of basin sustainable development. An overall and systematic consideration is generally absent during basin model building process, resulting in linear unidirectional modeling without fully consideration of the complexity, integrity and globality of basin issues. Therefore, optimization decision making in basin management is difficult to achieve. To solve this problem, a coupled model comprising comprehensive assessment model, system dynamic simulation model and Powell optimization model (ASO model) were synthesized from the perspectives of system optimization and model requirement. In this model, casual loops of society, economy and environment are devised based more on numerical model than conceptual description, which provides a possible approach to model complicated feedback in a basin system. Finally, the ASO model was applied to Lake Fuxianhu Basin as a case study.
摘要点击次数： 1608 全文下载次数： 3135
