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研究论文

基金项目：中国科学院战略性先导项目（No.XDB05030101，XDA05100501）；环保行业公益性科研专项（No.201009002）；国家自然科学基金（No.40805051）

摘要：利用嵌套网格空气质量模式（Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System，NAQPMS）模拟研究了2010年东亚地区可吸入颗粒物（PM₁₀）的时空演变，并初步评估了其对人群健康的危险度.结果表明，NAQPMS模式能够合理地反映东亚地区PM₁₀的时空分布，不同季节观测值和模拟值的总体相关系数达到0.65~0.85. 2010年东亚PM₁₀的地面浓度高值区（100 μg · m^-3）出现在我国华北、华中和内蒙古中西部等地区.其中，无机盐（硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐）对我国东部PM₁₀的贡献最大（10~70 μg · m^-3，20%~50%）；一次PM₁₀次之（5~50 μg · m^-3，10%~30%），有机物（5~30 μg · m^-3，10%~20%）和黑炭（3~20 μg · m^-3，3%~5%）紧随其后.PM₁₀可以引起我国东部人群急性总死亡率增加2%~5%，对我国居民的健康水平构成了一定威胁.

Abstract：The Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS) was used to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of PM₁₀ and its short-term impact on human health over East Asia in 2010. Comparison between simulated and observed PM₁₀ showed that NAQPMS was able to reproduce the evolution of PM₁₀ over East Asia reasonably with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.65 to 0.85 in four seasons. The results indicated that high surface PM₁₀ was mainly located in Central and Northern China and central western Inner Mongolia, with a magnitude of more than 100 μg · m^-3. In eastern China, inorganic aerosols (sulfate, nitrate and ammonium) dominated surface PM₁₀ mass (10~70 μg · m^-3, 20%~50%). Primary PM₁₀ typically accounted for 10%~30% of average PM₁₀ mass.Organic matter and elemental carbon in PM₁₀ mass ranged 10%~20% and 3%~5%, respectively. Furthermore, a preliminary estimate showed that PM₁₀ might increase 2%~5% of daily mortality in Eastern China in 2010.

Key words：Nested Air Quality Prediction Model system PM₁₀ numerical simulation human health