研究论文
吴喜军,李怀恩,董颖,刘铁龙.陕北地区煤炭开采等人类活动对河道径流影响的定量识别[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(3):772-780
陕北地区煤炭开采等人类活动对河道径流影响的定量识别
- Quantitative identification of coal mining and other human activities on river runoff in northern Shaanxi region
- 基金项目：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（No.2009ZX07212-002-003-004）；陕西省自然科学基金资助项目（No.2011JM5004）；陕西省教育厅科技计划项目（No.12JK0489）
- 作者
- 单位
- 吴喜军
- 1. 西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室(西安理工大学), 西安 710048;2. 榆林学院建筑工程系, 榆林 719000
- 李怀恩
- 西北旱区生态水利工程国家重点实验室(西安理工大学), 西安 710048
- 董颖
- 榆林学院建筑工程系, 榆林 719000
- 刘铁龙
- 陕西省江河水库管理局, 西安 710018
- 摘要：陕北地区水资源严重短缺，定量分析窟野河流域各因素对河道径流的影响程度，对干旱半干旱地区的资源开发具有重要意义.该文首先分析了窟野河径流以及流域内降雨、气温、水保措施、用水量和煤炭开采量等因素的变化趋势；其次按照1961—1979年、1980—1998年、1999—2010年以及1961—2010年等4个时期，采用逐步回归法分别确定其显著的影响因素，求出各时期的径流相关方程，其中1961—2010年间的主要影响因素为降雨量、气温、水保措施和煤炭开采量；最后定量计算了1980—1998年和1999—2010年相对于基准期1961—1979年各因素造成的减水量，其中水保措施的减水量由65%减少到了47%，煤炭开采却增加到了19%.结果表明，采用逐步回归分析法计算的窟野河1961—2010年径流模拟值与实测值很接近，该方法可以在中国北方干旱半干旱地区推广.
- Abstract：There is serious shortage of water resources in northern Shaanxi region. Quantitative identification of the influences of various factors on river runoff therefore has great significance for resources development in arid and semi-arid area of China. This study firstly analyzed the change trends of the factors in the Kuye River basin from 1961 to 2010, including river runoff, rainfall, atmospheric temperature, soil and water conservation measures, water consumption and coal mines, etc. The 50 years were then divided into four sub-periods, 1961—1979, 1980—1998, 1999—2010 and 1961—2010. Using stepwise regression method, the significant influence factors and weights for each period were identified and confirmed, and the runoff correlation equation was established. Finally, compared with the base period 1961—1979, the water reduction of the period 1980—1998 and 1999—2010 resulted from the factors were quantitatively calculated. The water yield caused by soil and water conservation measures reduced from 65% to 47%, while the water yield caused by coal mining increased to 19%. The result showed that the simulated runoff of the Kuye River from 1961 to 2010 using stepwise regression method was very close to the measured values. This method can be used in arid and semi-arid area of northern China.
- Key words：northern Shaanxi the Kuye River runoff stepwise regression method influence factors coal mining
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