• 关键词：总量分配  主观不确定性  权重系数  决策偏好

• 基金项目：水专项控制单元水生态承载力与污染物总量技术研究与示范（No.2013ZX07501005）；渤海陆源入海通量测算与总量控制技术研究（No. 2010BAC69B02）

• 吕丽
• 1. 沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院, 沈阳 110159;2. 中国环境科学研究院水环境研究所, 北京 100012

• 邓义祥
• 2. 中国环境科学研究院水环境研究所, 北京 100012

• 李艳
• 1. 沈阳理工大学环境与化学工程学院, 沈阳 110159

• 富国
• 2. 中国环境科学研究院水环境研究所, 北京 100012

• 雷坤
• 2. 中国环境科学研究院水环境研究所, 北京 100012

• 摘要：总量分配是制订污染物总量控制方案的基础，在总量分配方法中合理性指数法是由各因素组成的多目标分配方法，是一种新方法、新思路.由于各因素之间对应的权重系数通常采用专家打分方法确定，因此，分析主观性对总量分配结果的影响具有十分重要的意义.论文共选取30名不同领域的人员，并进行分组，分别对权重因子进行打分，分析不同类型的人员权重分布的特点及其对污染物总量分配结果的影响.研究结果表明：不同人员的权重因子对污染物总量分配具有一定的影响，对最后的决策结果产生一定的不确定性.从分配总量结果来看，TN、TP平均值分别为1.64万t·a^-1、0.12万t·a^-1，标准差分别为0.16万t·a^-1、0.014万t·a^-1，变差系数分别为0.09、0.12；从分组结果来看，管理人员一致性较好，研究人员一致性较差.总体而言，综合考虑不同领域专家的意见是保持总量分配方案的合理性和一致性的有效途径.

• Abstract：Allocation is a basis to develop the total pollutant load control plan, In a reasonable amount of allocation index, multi-objective allocation method is composed by some factors, It is a new approach and some new ideas. As the weight coefficient of each factor in the objective function is usually determined by expert scoring, it is very important to analyze the influence of the subjectivity on the total load allocation. In this study, 30 persons from different fields were divided into 3 groups and interviewed. The weights given and the effects of these weights on the allocation results were analyzed in total and in groups. The result showed that expert preferences could affect the weight assignment and bring uncertainty in the allocation decision. For the total allocation, the average allocated load for TN, TP was 16.4 thousand t·a^-1 and 1.2 thousand t·a^-1, with the standard deviations of 1.6 thousand t·a^-1 and 0.14 thousand t·a^-1 and the coefficients of variation of 0.09, 0.12, respectively. For the grouped result, the consistency of administrative managers was better than professional experts and general public. Overall, the comprehensive consideration of the expertise from different fields is important to improve the consistency and reasonability for the total load allocation result.

• Key words：total pollutant load allocation  subjective uncertainty  weight coefficients  decision preference

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