• 关键词：鄱阳湖  江湖关系  演变  影响因素

• 基金项目：国家重点基础研究发展计划(No.2012CB417004);国家青年科学基金(No.31200360);省科技重大专项(No.20114ABG01100-3-13-2)

• 刘志刚
• 江西省环境保护科学研究院, 南昌 330039

• 倪兆奎
• 1. 中国环境科学研究院 环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室, 北京 100012;2. 中国环境科学研究院湖泊创新基地 国家环境保护湖泊污染控制重点实验室, 北京 100012;3. 洞庭湖生态观测研究站, 岳阳 414000

• 摘要：鄱阳湖为长江流域最大的通江湖泊,江湖关系独特.现代鄱阳湖的形成及其演变是多种因素长期综合作用与发展的结果,且经历了几个不同的阶段.各种影响因素在鄱阳湖演变的不同阶段所发挥的作用也不尽相同.自然因素的影响过程较为缓慢,而人为因素的作用则较为明显,也更为直接.随着湖区人类社会经济的发展,人类对鄱阳湖的依存大大凸显其生态系统的重要性、脆弱性和敏感性.这必将对湖泊的演化,尤其是对冲积平原浅水湖泊的演变发挥决定性作用.特别是近年来面临着江湖关系、河湖关系和人湖关系的改变所带来的重大影响,未来鄱阳湖的发展和演变存在诸多变数和不确定性,面临着许多挑战.科学认识和预测江湖关系变化趋势及其对鄱阳湖的影响,并提出应对鄱阳湖演变与发展对策,对保障鄱阳湖生态安全尤为重要和迫切.

• Abstract：Poyang Lake is the largest river-connected lake along the Yangtze River basin, with a unique river-lake relationship. Formation and evolution of the modern Poyang Lake is the result of long-term interaction and development of multi-factors, which has undergone several different phases. These factors played the distinct roles in the different phases of the evolution, in the process of which which the natrual effect comes slowly, while anthropogenic effect appears faster and more directly. With the social-economic development around the lake area, human dependence highlights the importance, vulnerability and susceptibility of Poyang Lake ecosystem. This dependence surely will detrimentally take the effect on the course of lake evolution, especially to the shallow lakes in alluvial plains. It's worth noting that the significant impacts of the alteration of river-lake and human-lake relationships will bring more variables and uncertainties on the evolution of Poyang Lake in the future. To guarantee the Poyang Lake's eco-safety, it's particularly important and urgent to understand and predict the changing tendences of river-lake relationship scientifically and to propose countmeasures.

• Key words：Poyang Lake  the river-lake relationship  evolution  influence factors

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