• 关键词：系统动力学  水资源消耗  水污染  联合调控  松花江流域

• 基金项目：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(No.2012ZX07601002)

• 于森
• 1. 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084;2. 环境保护部环境规划院国家环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室, 北京 100012

• 蒋洪强
• 环境保护部环境规划院国家环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室, 北京 100012

• 常杪
• 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084

• 刘洁
• 环境保护部环境规划院国家环境规划与政策模拟重点实验室, 北京 100012

• 摘要：为解决松花江流域水资源消耗与水污染物排放联合调控过程中系统复杂特征难以刻画和系统状态变化难以量化的问题,本文从流域污染物排放的源头即农业、工业、畜禽养殖业及生活(城镇和农村)4个方面展开研究,研究其水资源消耗量和水污染物排放量联合控制的特征和机理过程.通过构建二者的耦合关系,建立了松花江流域水资源-水污染联合控制动态模拟模型.通过对该模型进行验证及设计的4种情景方案的模拟对比,充分说明实施开源、节流、治污、减排的综合措施,才是松花江流域经济社会与水环境系统协调发展的最佳策略.同时结果也证明了本文所提出的联合调控动态模拟模型的合理性和可行性.本研究对于解决松花江流域的水资源优化管理、水污染减排和总量控制具有重要的意义,同时可为制定松花江流域经济发展策略提供参考.

• Abstract：The organic connection between water resources and water pollution was established in the Songhua River basin, to solve the problem that complicated characteristics were difficult to depict and system state changes were difficult to quantify in process of the two integrated control. Considering from the perspective of pollution emissions, namely agriculture, industry, livestock and poultry breeding and life (urban and rural), the mechanism process was researched to reflect the combined control of water resources and water pollution in the Songhua River basin. The coupling relationship was established between water resources and water pollution. The system dynamics method was applied to construct the dynamic simulation model of water resources and water pollution for agricultural subsystem, livestock and poultry breeding subsystem, industrial subsystem, and life(urban and rural) subsystem respectively. And then an integrated model, which was integrated by the four subsystem models, was purposed for the combined control dynamic simulation model of water resources and water pollution. The designed scenario schemes were simulated by the integrated model. A conclusion was draw according to the results that the coordinated development of economy, society and water environmental system is the optimal strategy for the Songhua River basin. Through comprehensive analysis of the simulation results, rationality and feasibility were demonstrated about the proposed combined control model. It has important research significance to solve optimization of water resources management, water pollution reduction, and total pollutant load control, and to provide reference for economic development strategies in the Songhua River basin.

• Key words：system dynamics  water resources  water pollution  integrated control  Songhua River basin

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