研究报告
王文轲,杨琴,叶依琳,杨双瑜,孙琳.基于不确定性的矿区污染治理投入决策研究[J].环境科学学报,2015,35(7):2269-2273
基于不确定性的矿区污染治理投入决策研究
- Investment decision of pollution treatment in mining area based on uncertainty analysis
- 基金项目：可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室项目(No.KJ201420);四川省教育厅基金项目(No.14SB0022);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(No.14YJCZH089);四川省省级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(No. 201510636087, 201410636045); 四川师范大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目
- 作者
- 单位
- 王文轲
- 1. 四川师范大学可视化计算与虚拟现实四川省重点实验室, 成都 610068;2. 四川师范大学商学院, 成都 610101
- 杨琴
- 四川师范大学商学院, 成都 610101
- 叶依琳
- 四川师范大学商学院, 成都 610101
- 杨双瑜
- 四川师范大学商学院, 成都 610101
- 孙琳
- 四川师范大学商学院, 成都 610101
- 摘要：基于现实的基础上,考虑矿区污染治理所面临的不确定性,对污染治理最优投入的政策决策机制进行研究.根据污染治理投入成本的不可逆性及不确定性建立污染治理最优投入决策机制模型,求出了污染治理投入的临界点.结果表明,该模型能够真实、客观、全面地评价矿区污染治理投入决策机制,并可动态指导治理政策实施的最优时机.同时,分析了模型中各参数对污染治理决策的影响,结合案例验证了此模型在污染治理决策问题上的分析结果.结果发现,考虑了不确定性的模型有效避免了传统决策模型的局限性,可以帮助政府和煤矿企业做出科学有效的污染治理投入决策和制度设计,能更有效地推动煤矿企业安全生产的实施.本研究对环境政策的制定和实施具有理论和实践指导意义.
- Abstract：In view of the uncertainty in pollution treatment in the mining area, this study developed the optimal investment decisions policy mechanism model and derived a critical point in pollution treatment inputs based on the uncertainty and irreversibility of the costs and returns of pollution treatment input. This model is able to evaluate the investment decisions mechanism of pollution treatment in the mining area and dynamically guides the optimal timing of the pollution treatment policy decisions in the mining area. The influences of all parameters were analyzed. Moreover, some empirical studies were given to show the effectiveness of the decision model. The model considering the uncertainty effectively avoids the limitations of traditional decision-making model to help the government and coal companies make scientific and effective investment decisions and system design so as to promote more effective implementation of enterprise safety in production. Some policy suggestions that can be used to improve the development and implementation of environmental policies were also provided.
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