王晓宇,赵先贵.咸阳市温室气体排放的动态分析及等级评估[J].环境科学学报,2015,35(9):2732-2738
咸阳市温室气体排放的动态分析及等级评估
- Dynamic analysis and degree evaluation of greenhouse gases emissions in Xianyang City, China
- 基金项目：国家社会科学基金项目(No. 14XKS019)
- 王晓宇
- 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安 710019
- 赵先贵
- 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安 710019
- 摘要：通过采用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》和中国《省级温室气体编制指南》推荐的方法, 分析了咸阳市温室气体排放的动态变化, 并提出基于全球标准的温室气体排放等级评价方法, 对咸阳市温室气体进行了排放等级评估. 结果表明: 1995—2011年, 咸阳市温室气体排放量从1253.21×104 t 上升为5531.06×104 t, 年均增高9.72%, 呈快速上升趋势. 工业(年均增高21.34%)为增幅最高的部门, 其次依次为能源(9.62%)、废弃物(7.90%)、农业(2.45%). 从温室气体构成看, 能源占84.73%~91.81%, 工业占1.46%~8.55%, 农业占3.11%~9.32%, 林业碳减排占-0.53%~-2.36%, 废弃物处理占1.31%~8.39%. 由此可见, 咸阳市温室气体排放增长的主要原因是能源消费的增加以及工业生产的大幅增长. 万元GDP温室气体排放量波动下降, 年均降低4.53%; 人均、单位面积温室气体排放量和温室气体排放指数快速升高, 年均增幅分别达9.31%、9.72%和9.48%. 16年间, 咸阳市温室气体排放等级从较低(Ⅰc)持续升高至中上等级(Ⅱc), 已高出应对全球气候变暖目标(Ⅰb) 4个亚级, 温室气体减排工作刻不容缓.
- Abstract：Global warming caused by greenhouse gases emissions may lead to severe environmental and social problems. In this paper, an evaluation system for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions to the level of global benchmarking is proposed using the methods recommended by the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gases Inventories and the Chinese Guidelines for Provincial Greenhouse Gases Inventories, and analyzed the dynamic variation of GHG emissions of Xianyang City and evaluated their emissions degrees. The results show that, GHG emissions in Xianyang City rapidly increase from 1253.21×104 t to 5531.06×104 t during 1995 to 2011, with an annual average rate of 9.72%. The growth rate of GHG emissions decrease in the order of cement (21.34%) > energy (9.62%) > waste (7.90%) > agriculture (2.45%). Energy GHG accounts for the majority of GHG components (84.73%~91.81%), followed by cement GHG (1.46%~8.55%), agricultural GHG (3.11%~9.32%), forestry carbon sequestration (-0.53%~-2.36%), and waste treatment GHG (1.31%~8.39%). It is proven that, the increases of energy consumption and industrial manufacture are the primary causes of GHG increases of Xianyang City. GHG emissions per ten thousand Yuan decrease wavelike, with an annual average rate of 4.53%. GHG emissions per capita, per unit area and GHG emissions index increase rapidly, with an annual average speed of 9.31%, 9.72% and 9.48% respectively. Over the past 16 years, the grade of greenhouse gases emissions of Xianyang City increases continually from a low level (Ⅰc) to an above-average level (Ⅱc), which is four sub-grades higher than the target set for the control of global climate warming (Ⅰb). Therefore, GHG emissions reduction should be of high priority in pollution control.
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