赵静静,柴立和,杜慧滨.基于MIEP模型的城市生态安全评价——以宁波市为例[J].环境科学学报,2015,35(9):2989-2995
基于MIEP模型的城市生态安全评价——以宁波市为例
- Assessment of urban ecological security based on MIEP model:A case study of Ningbo
- 基金项目：国家自然科学基金(No.71071110,71273185)
- 赵静静
- 天津大学环境科学与工程学院, 天津 300072
- 柴立和
- 天津大学环境科学与工程学院, 天津 300072
- 杜慧滨
- 天津大学管理与经济学部, 天津 300072
- 摘要：基于城市生态安全内涵,运用PSR(压力-状态-响应)模型建立了宁波市生态安全评价指标体系,并以最大信息熵原理(MIEP)为基础,自组织特征映射神经网络(SOFM)为算法,借助MATLAB数学软件为计算平台,从复杂系统结构演化的角度提出了城市生态安全评价模型.最后,用MIEP模型对宁波市2002—2011年的城市生态安全进行评价.结果表明,2002—2011年宁波市生态安全水平逐年提高,2002—2009年处于临界安全状态,2010、2011年处于较安全状态.由于MIEP模型能较好地体现城市生态安全的时空演变动力学特性,连接权值的获取避免了人为设定的主观性,故在城市生态安全评价中有较明显的优势,且在预测上有一定的潜力.
- Abstract：Based on the concept of urban ecological security (UES), the UES assessment indicator system of Ningbo is established according to PSR (pressure-state-response) model. UES assessment model is proposed from structural evolution of complex systems based on the maximum information entropy principle (MIEP), self-organizing feature map neural network (SOFM) algorithm and MATLAB mathematical software. The UES status of Ningbo shows an increasing trend from 2002 to 2011. In 2002—2009, Ningbo's UES is in critical security, and improves in 2010—2011. Since MIEP model can better reflect the temporal-spatial dynamic evolution of UES and connection weights aki can avoid subjectivity in artificial assumption, it has not only obvious advantages in evaluation of UES but also potential in its prediction.
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