• 关键词：变权重组合模型  情景分析  城市固体废物  预测  温室气体  双层规划

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金优秀青年基金(No.51222906);国家自然科学基金(No.41271540);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(No. NCET-13-0791);中央高校基本科研业务专项

• 陈义忠
• 华北电力大学环境研究院, 北京 102206

• 何理
• 华北电力大学可再生能源学院, 北京 102206

• 卢宏玮
• 华北电力大学可再生能源学院, 北京 102206

• 李晶
• 华北电力大学环境研究院, 北京 102206

• 黄国和
• 华北电力大学环境研究院, 北京 102206

• 摘要：采用变权重组合模型和情景分析法,对北京市的城市固体废物(MSW)产量进行有效地预测.预测结果表明,北京市垃圾产量增幅不大但处理设施容量存在缺口.在科学预测的基础上,构建以温室气体(GHG)控制为上层目标,系统成本最小化为下层目标的双层规划模型(BLP-MG&MC).该模型的结果表明,焚烧和堆肥将是北京市MSW的主要处理方式;在3个规划时段内,GHG总排放量达到1.67×10⁶ t(以CO₂当量计),填埋场的CH₄和焚烧厂的N₂O是GHG排放的主要贡献者;系统总成本达到7.0×10⁹元,其中,65%的成本来自于焚烧厂和堆肥厂.4种模型结果的对比分析表明,双层规划能提供综合经济和环境因素的管理方案.

• Abstract：To efficiently predict the quantity of municipal solid waste in Beijing, the quantity forecasting model was established based on the combined forecasting model with variable weights and scenario analysis method. Results showed that MSW output in Beijing would rise slightly, but a shortage of disposal capacity would remain. On this basis, a bi-level programming (BLP-MG&MC) was presented, in which the upper-level objective was to control greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and system cost minimization was placed at the lower-level objective. Results from the model indicated that composting and incineration would be the primary forms of MSW disposal. The total GHG emissions would reach 1.67×10⁶ t-CO₂eq over the planning horizon and the CH₄ emissions emitted from landfill facilities and N₂O emissions associated with incineration facilities would be the major contributors to GHG emissions. The resulted system cost would amount to 7.0×10⁹ Yuan, with incineration and composting facilities responsible for about 65%. Comparative analysis of the four models revealed that the bi-level model would be conducive to providing compromised waste diversion schemes with both economic cost and environmental benefit.

• Key words：combined forecasting model with variable weights  scenario analysis  municipal solid waste  predict  greenhouse gas  bi-level programming

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