• 关键词：风险评价  定量微生物风险评价  QMRA  环境风险

• 基金项目：教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助"(No.NCET-12-0531);国家自然科学基金(No.51478460);哈尔滨工业大学城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室开放基金项目(No.ES201005);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果(No.10XNJ023)

• 张振兴
• Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820, USA

• 王江权
• 中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872

• 郑祥
• 1. 中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872;2. 哈尔滨工业大学城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室, 哈尔滨 150090

• 摘要：环境风险评价是成型于1970年代的多学科交叉新兴领域,为环境风险管理提供决策的科学依据.环境风险评价研究的发展经历以意外事故为风险源的事故风险评价,以化学品为风险源和人体健康为风险受体的健康风险评价,以生态系统为风险受体的生态风险评价.以微生物污染为风险源和人体健康为风险受体的定量微生物风险评价(QMRA)也于1990年代开始发展.QMRA确定微生物的摄入量及其对人体产生不良作用概率之间关系的数学描述.作为一种前沿的微生物健康风险评估手段,QMRA为公共卫生政策和标准制定、采取可行的健康干预决策提供有力支撑,已被美国、加拿大、荷兰、澳大利亚等多个国家应用于环境管理.本文梳理了环境风险评价的发展历史,系统详细综述水媒传播病原微生物定量风险评价的研究与应用,同时指出当前QMRA面临的问题并提出针对性的建议.

• Abstract：Environmental risk assessment, an emerging field established in the 1970s, provides scientific basis for environment risk management decision making. The development of environmental risk assessment has been through three stages:accident risk assessment, health risk assessment, ecological risk assessment. Accident risk assessment evaluates the risks originated from unforeseen events or accidents. Health risk assessment explores the human health impact of chemicals. Ecological risk assessment investigates ecosystem risks due to various factors. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) firstly proposed in the 1990s, is focused on microbial contamination as risk source and human health as risk receptor. QMRA describes mathematical relations between intake of microorganism and the probability that it results in infection, illness, or death within a population. QMRA is a leading microbial health risk assessment approach, providing sound scientific basis for public health policies and standards as well as feasible health intervention decision-making. It has been applied to environmental management worldwide, such as the U.S., Canada, Netherlands, Australia, and so on. The present study summarizes the history of QMRA and provides vision of the future of QMRA. Meanwhile, the challenges and issues of QMRA research and applications in China are discussed and suggestions to facilitate QMRA development are provided, aiming to improve risk management related with waterborne microbial contamination in China.

• Key words：risk assessment  quantitative microbial risk assessment  QMRA  environmental risk

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