• 关键词：臭氧  非线性响应曲面  CMAQ  长三角

• 基金项目：国家科技支撑计划项目(No.2014BAC22B03);上海市科委科技攻关项目(No.14DZ1202905);上海市环境保护局重大课题研究项目(No.沪环科(2014-01))

• 严茹莎
• 1. 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233;2. 上海市环境科学研究院, 上海 200233

• 李莉
• 1. 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233;2. 上海市环境科学研究院, 上海 200233

• 安静宇
• 1. 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233;2. 上海市环境科学研究院, 上海 200233

• 卢清
• 1. 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233;2. 上海市环境科学研究院, 上海 200233

• 黄成
• 1. 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233;2. 上海市环境科学研究院, 上海 200233

• 王书肖
• 清华大学环境学院, 北京 100084

• 朱云
• 华南理工大学环境与能源学院, 广州 510006

• Carey J. Jang
• Air Quality Modeling Group, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NC 27711, USA

• Joshua S. Fu
• Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996,USA

• 摘要：2013年8月上旬,长三角地区发生了一次大范围高浓度臭氧污染事件.本研究基于WRF-CMAQ空气质量模型系统,结合长三角地区大气污染物排放清单,构建了臭氧与其前体物之间的非线性响应曲面模型(Responsesurfacemodeling,RSM).基于RSM探讨了长三角地区O₃化学的敏感性特征,分析了上海市O₃的来源并预测不同情景下O₃的变化,提出O₃污染的最优控制方案.研究结果表明,长三角地区夏季O₃主控因素区域差别较大,上海环科院、杭州卧龙桥、南京玄武湖等城区点位属于VOC控制型;徐州铜山、合肥肥西、丽水青田等郊区属于NO_x控制型.O₃的敏感性特征在不同浓度水平下也呈现较大差异,随着O₃浓度水平的升高,各地区NO_x敏感性均有所增加.从区域来源来看,远距离传输对平日上海O₃贡献较大,占50%以上;而在O₃污染日,本地及区域贡献为72.1%,而远距离传输贡献下降至27.9%.快速预测了110组减排情景,表明在本地及区域前体物均减排70%的情况下,2013年8月上海O₃浓度能完全达标.

• Abstract：A large-scale ozone pollution episode occurred in early August 2013 in the Yangtze River Delta region. In this paper, the response surface model (RSM) was employed to build the functional relationships between ozone precursors (NO_x and VOC) emissions and ozone concentration based on WRF-CMAQ air quality model and emission inventories of anthropogenic air pollutants in the Yangtze River Delta region. Sensitivity characteristics of ozone chemistry, source contributions of ozone and variations of ozone concentrations under different scenarios were analyzed, and the optimal control scheme based on case study was proposed. The dominant control factors for ozone pollution showed clear regional differences in the Yangtze River Delta region. The urban sites such as Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Hangzhou Wolong Bridge and Nanjing Xuanwu Lake were VOC-limited, while the rural areas such as Xuzhou Tongshan, Hefei Feixi, Lishui Qingtian were NO_x-limited. The sensitivity characteristics of ozone were dependent on its concentrations. With the increase of ozone concentration, all areas presented higher sensitivity to NO_x. The long-distance transport contributed more than 50% of ozone pollution in Shanghai on usual days. During pollution episodes, local and regional sources contributed 72.1%, while long-distance transport contribution decreased to 27.9%. By estimating ozone concentrations for 110 groups of scenarios by RSM, we concluded that ozone concentration would achieve attainment if the emission of ozone precursors from both local and regional sources were reduced by 70% in August 2013 in Shanghai.

• Key words：ozone  response surface model(RSM)  CMAQ  YRD Region

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