• 关键词：土地资源  生态安全评价  正态云  熵权法  半干旱区

• 基金项目：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项(No.201511082-2)

• 叶达
• 中国地质大学土地科学技术学院, 北京 100083

• 吴克宁
• 1. 中国地质大学土地科学技术学院, 北京 100083;2. 国土资源部土地整治重点实验室, 北京 100035

• 刘霈珈
• 中国地质大学土地科学技术学院, 北京 100083

• 摘要：在生态环境脆弱的半干旱区,实施农业开发的核心目的是发展区域经济并维持生态安全,而土地资源生态安全是实现半干旱区可持续发展的重要前提.针对综合指数法、模糊综合法无法同时兼顾生态安全评价指标的模糊性与随机性,以及特尔菲法、层次分析法确定指标权重时主观性过强的问题,本研究将正态云模型与熵权法引入半干旱区农业开发土地资源生态安全评价,并以位于半干旱区的孙家滩国家农业科技园为例,对农业开发前后的土地资源生态安全做定性测度.结果表明:从规划基期年2013年至规划目标年2020年,孙家滩土地资源生态安全综合指数将从1.9762上升至2.1376,生态安全等级将维持在中等.研究表明,正态云模型与熵权法有效地降低了偶然误差,提高了土地资源生态安全评价的准确性.该研究可为半干旱区农业开发土地资源生态安全评价及农业开发规划的编制修改提供一定的借鉴与参考.

• Abstract：In semi-arid areas with a fragile ecological environment, the key purpose of agricultural development is to develop economy and maintain the ecological security of land resources which is an important prerequisite for the sustainable development in those areas. Previous evaluation methods such as Synthetic Index Method or Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method cannot take both the fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indexes into account while Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process are too subjective when used to determine index weight. In view of these drawbacks, this study applies Normal Cloud Model and Entropy-right Method to evaluate the ecological security of land resources before and after agricultural development in Sunjiatan National Science and Technology Park, a semi-arid area. Results showed that, from 2013 to 2020, the comprehensive index of Sunjiatan land resources increases from 1.9762 to 2.1376, with its ecological security maintaining at medium level. These two methods effectively reduce accidental errors while increase the evaluation accuracy. This study provides references for the security evaluation of land resources in semi-arid areas as well as for the modifications of agricultural development planning.

• Key words：land resource  ecological security evaluation  normal cloud model  entropy weight  semi-arid area

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