• 关键词：低碳生态城市  城市健康评估  系统动力学  指标调控

• 基金项目：国际科技合作专项(No.2012DFG92020)

• 徐鹏
• 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871

• 林永红
• 北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院, 深圳 518055

• 栾胜基
• 1. 北京大学环境科学与工程学院, 北京 100871;2. 北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院, 深圳 518055

• 摘要：在推进生态文明建设、应对气候变化和解决环境问题的背景下,低碳生态城市已经成为未来城市发展转型的必然趋势.为了指导实现城市有序健康的发展,初步提出了一种低碳生态城市建设效应评估模型.在基于"压力-状态-响应"综合评估模型、系统动力学模拟模型和调控潜力分析的基础上,构建现状水平和未来演变趋势相结合的认知框架,综合考虑当地自然资源安全,定量表达社会活动、低碳经济和生态环境之间的相互依赖、相互制约的关系,确定指标调控方向和潜力.最后,基于该模型对深圳市进行了案例研究,结果表明:深圳市评估指数从2009年"IV级:较低"提升到2013年"III级:中等",在维持现状规模和高速发展速度下,2020年达到"II级:较高"水平(61.7),尽管保持增长趋势,但呈现增长缓慢甚至"饱和"状态.因此,依旧有必要优化调控深圳市低碳生态城市建设中社会经济发展的方向和模式,进一步落实和强化深圳市低碳生态产业结构调整和"海洋强市"等措施.

• Abstract：Low-carbon eco-city has become the inevitable trend of future urban development and transformation under the background of promoting the development of ecological civilization, addressing climate change and solving environmental problems. To guide the healthy and orderly urban development, the model is proposed to assess the effects of low-carbon eco-city development. Different with traditional studies, the conceptual framework emphasizes the current conditions and future trends based on "Pressure-State-Response" comprehensive assessment model, system dynamics simulation model and regulation potentiality analysis, considering the local natural resource security, quantitative expression the mutually dependent and interacting relationship between social activities, low-carbon economy and ecological environment as well as confirming the potential and direction of indicator regulation. The proposed assessment model was then applied to Shenzhen, and the results indicate that the assessment index for Shenzhen increased from level IV at 2009 to level III at 2013, and would arrive at 61.7 (level II) at 2020 with the same control levels and developing rate. The growth rate of the assessment index became slower and would become even "saturated" state. Therefore, it is still necessary to optimize the direction and pattern of socio-economic development during low-carbon eco-city construction, and further implement and strengthen the measures in industrial restructuring and "Marine city" building in Shenzhen.

• Key words：Low-carbon eco-city  urban development health  system dynamics  indicator regulation

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