• 关键词：条件模拟  地统计  污染场地  环境修复  空间插值

• 基金项目：国家自然科学基金（No.41372233，41402211）；国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（No.2014ZX07201-010）

• 蒋世杰
• 1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;2. 北京师范大学地下水污染控制与修复教育部工程研究中心, 北京 100875

• 王金生
• 1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;2. 北京师范大学地下水污染控制与修复教育部工程研究中心, 北京 100875

• 翟远征
• 1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;2. 北京师范大学地下水污染控制与修复教育部工程研究中心, 北京 100875

• 尹芝华
• 1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;2. 北京师范大学地下水污染控制与修复教育部工程研究中心, 北京 100875

• 滕彦国
• 1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875;2. 北京师范大学地下水污染控制与修复教育部工程研究中心, 北京 100875

• 摘要：针对一般空间插值方法的局限性，以某铁合金厂污染场地为例，利用基于地统计的条件模拟法对研究区待修复的范围及土方量进行评估，定量评价土壤修复量估算结果的不确定性所带来的风险大小，并引入传递函数量化决策结果与风险损失之间的关系，提出一种以风险损失最小化为原则的修复范围划定方法。同时，将结果与利用反距离权重法、径向基函数法和普通克里格法得到的评估结果进行对比分析。研究结果显示，利用条件模拟法可以得到超过修复目标的污染概率的空间分布，进而得到确定不同土壤修复量时所面对的风险大小。研究区大部分面积的土壤中Mn的超标概率在20%~70%，超标概率较高的区域集中在场区北部和西南部。如果分别将超标概率在30%和50%以上的区域作为修复范围，所面对的相对风险值将分别为4.1%和56.5%。此外，通过与传递函数相结合，利用条件模拟法可以得到基于风险损失的修复范围，按照本研究所设定的风险损失条件，得到风险损失最小的待修复土方量为32.4×10⁴ m³。该方法将有助于决策者从风险损失出发对污染场地修复范围进行合理划定。

• Abstract：In order to overcome the limitations of some spatial interpolation methods, the geostatistics-based conditional simulation was employed to calculate the volume of soil requiring remediation in an abandoned ferroalloy works. The risk caused by the uncertainty of the result was also assessed, and the result was compared with the inverse distance weighted method, the radial basis function method and the ordinary kriging method. Then a transfer function was introduced and combined with the conditional simulation to delineate the area requiring remediation. This method was on the basis of the principle of minimizing risk losses after evaluating the relationship between decision-making and risk losses. The results showed that the spatial distribution of the probabilities that the pollutant concentration exceeded the remedial target could be obtained by the conditional simulation method. The exceedance probabilities of Mn in this study area mainly ranged from 20% to 70%. Most of higher probabilities were located in the north and southwest. If the areas with exceedance probabilities of 30% and 50% were taken as where requiring remediation, the relative risk levels would be 4.1% and 56.5% respectively. The conditional simulation method can also be combined with the transfer function to delineate the area requiring remediation. The volume of soil requiring remediation with the minimal risk loss was 32.4×10⁴ m³. The method proposed in this study is helpful for decision-makers in delineating the reasonable area requiring remediation from the risk-loss point of view.

• Key words：conditional simulation  geostatistics  contaminated sites  environmental remediation  spatial interpolation

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