研究报告
魏军晓,耿元波,王松.中国水泥碳排放测算的影响因素分析与不确定度计算[J].环境科学学报,2016,36(11):4234-4244
中国水泥碳排放测算的影响因素分析与不确定度计算
- Identification of factors influencing CO2 emission estimation from Chinese cement industry and determination of their uncertainty
- 基金项目：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（No.XDA05010400）
- 作者
- 单位
- 魏军晓
- 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;2. 中国地质大学(北京), 北京 100083
- 耿元波
- 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101
- 王松
- 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049
- 摘要：作为水泥生产大国和CO2排放大户，中国水泥行业的CO2排放在国际上受到越来越广泛的重视，然而不同的研究结果之间存在不同程度的差异.为了定量研究中国水泥碳排放测算的影响因素，对碳排放因子的测算、运营边界的界定及水泥熟料或水泥成品的产量这3个影响因素做了详细分析，并对碳排放因子的不确定度做了定量计算.结果发现，影响中国水泥碳排放测算的最主要因素是碳排放因子，而该因素又与生产工艺、燃料和熟料水泥比等密切相关.本研究结果比IPCC、EDGAR、CDIAC和WBCSD/CSI等研究结果均低，并且差异逐年显著，以水泥碳排放来自碳酸盐分解的部分为例，2000年相差约65 Mt，而2012年差值接近450 Mt.计算表明，中国水泥碳排放不确定度为12%~22%.因此，水泥碳排放测算的影响因素较多，在计算中国水泥碳排放量时不可照搬国外研究的参数.
- Abstract：As a large contributor of cement production and CO2 emission, Chinese cement industry has attracted great international attention. However, different studies showed some discrepancies in terms of CO2 emission estimations from cement production. In order to quantify CO2 emission factors from Chinese cement industry, three influences have been discussed:calculation of CO2 emission factors by cement production, definition of the calculation boundary, and the output of clinker or cement product. Furthermore, the uncertainty for CO2 emission factors has been calculated. It is concluded that CO2 emission factor is the main factor for CO2 emission estimation, and it is related to production process, fuel types and clinker/cement ratio. Estimation results from this study are lower than those in IPCC, EDGER, CDIAC and WBCSD/CSI, and the differences become more significant by years. For example, the discrepancies of CO2 emissions from carbonate decomposition were approximately 65 Mt and 450 Mt in year 2000 and 2012, respectively. The uncertainties of CO2 emissions from Chinese cement industry range from 12% to 22%. In conclusion, there are many factors influencing CO2 emissions from Chinese cement industry, and we cannot imitate parameters from other countries when calculating CO2 emissions from Chinese cement industry.
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