• 关键词：三维生态足迹  面板数据  自然资本利用  偏最小二乘分析

• 基金项目：

• 张星星
• 北京大学深圳研究生院, 城市规划与设计学院, 深圳 518055

• 曾辉
• 北京大学深圳研究生院, 城市规划与设计学院, 深圳 518055

• 摘要：以自然资本利用的存量、流量分类测度的三维生态足迹方法是区域可持续发展能力评估的最新方法论进展.以珠江三角洲城市群9个地市23年的面板数据为数据源，在测度自然资本利用状况时空变化基础上，利用偏最小二乘法进行驱动力分析.研究表明：①珠江三角洲23年间生态足迹呈递增趋势，生态赤字加剧，自身的可持续发展能力较弱；②珠三角自然资本存量占用呈递增趋势；流量资本消耗呈递减趋势，表明过度消耗存量资本换取发展，区域自然资本流动所受的限制较多；③食品消费结构变化、化石能源消费总量增加以及城市扩张带来的土地利用变化，是生态足迹结构变化的主要成因；④人口规模、社会经济差异和政策因素是区域自然资本利用动态变化特征差异的3个主导因素，科技因素和自然环境因素对研究区自然资本利用变化的影响程度不显著.

• Abstract：The three-dimensional ecological footprint approach based on measurement of natural capital stocks and natural capital flows is the one of the latest research progress in the field of quantitative sustainability assessment. In this study, dynamic analysis of the ecological footprint in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) from 1990 to 2012 was conducted based on the three-dimensional ecological footprint assessment method and panel data of nine cities in the PRD. The main driving factor behind the dynamic change of ecological footprint was explored with a partial least square analysis. The results indicated that from 1990 to 2012, the total footprint of the PRD showed a steadily increasing trend coincided with large ecological deficit, indicating a decrease of regional sustainability. The regional natural capital stock occupation was on a rising trend, while its natural capital consumption is descending. This suggested that the regional economic development was compensated by excessive occupation of local natural capital stock, and the flow natural capital consumption had much restrictions. The changes of food consumption structure, the increase of fossil fuel consumption, and the change of land use should be responsible for the ecological footprint structure changes. The three key factors of dynamic change of natural capital use in this region are population scale, the socioeconomic differences, and the policy factors, while the natural environment and technological factors are playing a minor role.

• Key words：the three dimensional ecological footprint  panel model  natural capital utilization  partial least square

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