• 关键词：氮氧化物排放  因子分解  脱钩  减排

• 基金项目：福建省中青年教师教育科研项目（No.JA15410）

• 王丽琼
• 泉州师范学院资源与环境科学学院, 泉州 362000

• 摘要：首先基于Kaya恒等式，利用对数平均Divisia指数分解模型（LMDI法）将氮氧化物排放分解为排放因子、能源强度、经济结构、能源结构和经济发展5个因素；其次通过模型得出的脱钩系数运用构建四象限法评价"十二五"期间中国30个省市脱钩空间差异，研究各省市氮氧化物减排表现、分析减排潜力和减排影响因素，为国家"十三五"制定差异化的区域氮氧化物减排目标和寻找多元化的氮氧化物减排途径提供有益参考.研究结果表明：经济增长是促进氮氧化物排放量增加的决定因素，能源强度降低是抑制氮氧化物增排的决定因素，经济结构优化和能源结构调整具有较大促进氮氧化物减排潜力；中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩空间分异明显，大部分省市经济发展与氮氧化物排放处于脱钩状态，部分省市弱脱钩状态.同时，中国氮氧化物排放与经济增长脱钩系数呈现逐年上升趋势，2010-2015年中国各省市氮氧化物排放脱钩空间分布由较弱、中脱钩为主至中、较强脱钩为主再到较强脱钩为主，呈现区域间"异质化"和区域内"均质化"的趋势.国家氮氧化物后续减排任务应多分解在中脱钩或弱脱钩（减排潜力大）省市，对相邻的省份制定协同减排计划，且主要通过提高能源利用效率、同时优化经济结构和能源消费结构实现其最优减排.

• Abstract：First, the changes in NO_x emission at the provincial level were decomposed into 5 effects, i.e. NO_x intensity effect, energy structure effect, energy intensity effect, economic structure effect and economic development effect, using the log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) technique based on the Kaya identity. The four-quadrant method based on provincial spatial disparities for NO_x emission decoupling index was then employed to evaluate NO_x emission reduction in 30 provinces from 2010 to 2015. Investigation of decoupling progress between economic growth and NO_x emissions reduction potential and its influencing factors provides references for the development of differential regional objectives of NO_x emission reduction and multiple emission reduction strategies during the "13^th Five-year Plan". The decomposition result shows that economic growth is the decisive factor for the NO_x emission increase, reduction of energy intensity is a major determinant of the NO_x emission decrease, and the optimizations of economic structure and energy structure are conducive to NO_x emission reduction. According to the evaluation, the decoupling indices between NO_x emissions and economic growth in 30 provinces vary significantly. Most provinces have demonstrated significant achievement in decoupling their economic growth from NO_x emission in the "12^th Five-year period", while a few provinces only make small effort in decoupling progress. Moreover, NO_x emission decoupling index in China shows a rising trend year by year, the regional distribution situation in 2010-2015 is from weak decoupling to middle decoupling and further to strong decoupling, inter-regional NO_x emission decoupling has a tendency to be heterogeneous, while NO_x emission decoupling over different provinces in the same region is being homogenized. Therefore, greater attention should be paid and more assistance should be offered to the lower-scoring provinces (with higher reduction potential) to enhance their efforts to decouple economic growth from NO_x emissions, and the cooperative emission reduction plan should be proposed in adjacent provinces. Most provinces should concentrate their efforts on further reducing energy intensity, while measures to transfer economic structure and energy structure should also be considered.

• Key words：NO_x emission  factors decomposition  decoupling  emission reduction

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